Nigeria - Part 3 - Exports & Logistics.

Nigeria's exports of crude oil and condensate during the week to Aug. 8 averaged about 1.37m b/d, down from 2.3m b/d in August 2007. And Nigeria's imports of liquid fuels for local demand during that week averaged about 320,000 b/d of crude oil equivalent.

In August 2007, when the security situation in Nigeria was far better, the exported entitlement of the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp (NNPC) amounted to about 1.4m b/d, with the remaining 900,000 b/d exported for the foreign and local oil operators and their partners. NNPC then imported about 220,000 b/d of gasoline, gasoil and kerosine, and 20,000 b/d of crude oils, and exporting about 40,000 b/d of heavy fuel oil (see the background in omt7NigrExp&GlobalPerspvAug13-07).

Citing trade sources, Reuters on Aug. 5 reported that Nigeria was to export 64 full or part cargoes of crude oil in September 2009 carrying an average of 1.98m b/d. The agency said exports were to include eight cargoes, or 260,000 b/d, of Agbami crude oil which is condensate as it is very light. Reuters said the September loading programme was to include four delayed cargoes of Forcados crude and five cargoes of Bonny Light, both grades under force majeure by the operator, Shell.

Nigerian crude oil price premia on Aug. 6 firmed as attractive refining margins in the US bolstered demand. Most Angolan cargoes for loading in September were reported to have been sold. Chinese demand has been particularly strong, albeit at weaker levels than in August. Nigeria's benchmark Qua Iboe crude oil, produced by ExxonMobil, was on Aug. 6 assessed at dated BFOE plus $1.50, in line with deals in that week. Agbami was then offered at around dated BFOE plus 60 cents after a deal done between Chevron and Petrobras at around plus 50 cents. Akpo condensate then was discussed around dated BFOE plus 50 cents. Few Angolan cargoes for September were reported available.

Indications are that US refiners, the biggest consumers for Nigeria's crudes, may have begun moves to dump this source for Angola. Although a lull on Aug. 6 began to return to the Niger Delta, a gas pipeline at Shell's Utorogun oil- fields there was blown up on Aug. 8. A group calling itself Ughievwen Youth Body Fighters reportedly left a banner and flyers, claiming responsibility for the pipe damage to raise perceived grievances and demands on government and the oil companies in that area.

Touring Africa, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Aug. 12 was in Abuja and met with President Umaru Yar'Adua and other leaders. She focused on the troubled Niger Delta and northern Nigeria. In the north, a Neo-Salafi insurgency was revived on Aug. 15 as a group affiliated with al-Qaeda said it was resuming its struggle after its forces were recently crushed (see omt5NigrProspAug3-09). The US is worried by an Iranian-Qaeda alliance which is causing violence in Yemen, the GCC area, Iraq and Africa (see news7YemnGCC-Aug17-09 & rim2IrqIRGC-Aug17-09).

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