Big Insurgent Attacks.

In the worst of the daily attacks since US forces on June 30 withdrew from the cities, six co-ordinated bombings in Baghdad on Aug. 19 killed over 100 people and wounded 563 others. It was yet another sign that Iraq had entered a cycle of violence likely to continue to undermine the planned legislative and provincial elections.

The two deadliest bombings were at the finance and foreign ministries, among the most heavily guarded buildings in Baghdad. At least six mortars rained down on two central locations. Three of them were aimed at the Green Zone - the fortified enclave where the US embassy and many Iraqi government offices are located. One of the big blasts was close to al-Rashid Hotel's conference hall in the Green Zone, where a meeting was being held. The blast occurred a few minutes before the arrival of PM Maleki to attend that meeting - with some speculating he was to be a target.

Many Iraqis later said they had little faith in the government's ability to defeat the insurgency. An un-named 53-year-old official was on Aug. 20 quoted by the press having said the American troops withdrew from Baghdad and other cities too soon, adding: "There is infiltration everywhere in the state, especially in the security forces. Today the entire city [of Baghdad] was targeted. How do you justify that?"

Iraq's Kurdish Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, shaken by the blasts, blamed al-Qaeda for the attacks which he said were part of the Neo-Salafi group's desperate effort to tell Baghdad, the US and the world that the Sunni insurgency in Iraq was still strong. Other politicians pointed to the fact that al-Qaeda still had an operational base in Iran - as part of a tactical alliance between the Neo-Salafis and Tehran's ruling IRGC - and that the operations of these Sunni Arab extremists in Iraq were guided by the IRGC (see the background in news9GCC-IranQaedaAug25-08).

Interviewed by the Saudi-owned pan-Arab TV al-Arabiya hours after the blasts on Aug. 19, MP Usama al-Nujaifi accused Iran of being behind these attacks. Asked for the reason for this as most victims were Shi'ite Arabs, Nujaifi said this was one way of Tehran bargaining with the US - showing Washington the strength of Iran's presence and influences in Iraq.

Other prominent politicians on Aug. 20 told the US government-funded pan-Arab TV al-Hurra that Syria and Iran were behind this cycle of Neo-Salafi attacks, with Rashid al-Azzawi saying the joint Syria-Iran role in the violence had been constant since the early days of the US invasion. He pointed to a vow on March 26, 2003, made by Syrian VP Farouq al-Shara' who then said Damascus was determined to see the Americans defeated in Iraq. Azzawi, a Sunni Arab, told al-Hurra these attacks were a message to all concerned that the neighbours did not want to see Iraq's political process succeed. He said Damascus wanted Baghdad to end a national ban on Saddam's Ba'th Party, whose leadership now is based in Syria. But Azzawi said a lifting of this ban required amending Iraq's constitution which was impossible at this stage.

Dr Saleh al-Fayad told al-Hurra the Syrian role in Iraq's violence was being co-ordinated with Iran as both neighbours were determined to see Baghdad's political process to fail. Asked why Syria behaved in this way despite PM Maleki's Aug. 18 visit to Damascus and announcement from there that a joint "Strategic Co-operation Council" was being formed, Dr Fayad pointed to several agreements signed in recent years but never implemented by the Syrian side.

A series of bombs and mortar rounds in the southern province of Babel on Aug. 20 killed dozens of Shi'ites and wounded hundreds of others. On the same day, a roadside bomb in a market in a town near the holy Shi'ite city of Karbala', around 80 km south-west of Baghdad, killed four people and wounded 14. Such attacks have become a daily occurrence.

Like many other Iraqi analysts and politicians, both Azzawi and Fayad stressed that Syria and Iran wanted the US first to give them big rewards as a price for their co-operation in the process to stabilise Iraq and end the cycle of terrorism. But they said they were not optimistic about the prospects ahead.

The Pentagon said: "We expected these types of attacks to occur leading up to and after the 30 June transition and it's clearly efforts by insurgent groups to try to exploit sectarian tensions and incite violence. These are tragic, unfortunate acts designed to try to propagandise and to test Iraqi security forces but they certainly won't deter the progress that has been made nor do we anticipate that we will see violence spiralling out of control [as it did in 2006-07]".

During his Aug. 18-19 visit to Damascus, which ended early on Aug. 19, Maleki asked Syrian officials to hand over Iraqi Ba'thist leaders suspected of supporting the Sunni insurgency. The Syrian side did not make any clear promise that they would do that. And Maleki blamed the attacks on Saddam's Ba'thists - thus reiterating to Syria and Sunni Arabs that the de-Ba'thification process would not be reversed - and vowed to revamp security measures.

US military officials in Baghdad on Aug. 19 reiterated Iran and Syria were behind this cycle of violence and that there was little the Americans could do other than put more pressure on the Shi'ite PM to make better decisions. Senior US officials have long criticised Maleki for being over-confident and impulsive.

Sectarian killings in Baghdad alone totalled 1,600 in December 2006 before coming down to well below 100. But the US reported an increase in violent civilian deaths across the country in April, even ahead of the transition to Iraqi forces, while adding that "these attacks have not rekindled a cycle of ethno-sectarian violence". Referring to what he called the "uptick" in violence, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates recently said: "This is not the Sunnis coming after the Shia. This is al-Qaeda".

There have been tensions between Iraqi and US forces since the US pull-out, which Maleki billed as a "great victory" for Iraqis. Since then, his government has sharply limited the mobility and authority of US troops in Baghdad. But hitting at Maleki assertions that security in Iraq had improved, independent Shi'ite MP and former national security minister Qassem Da'oud on Aug. 21 said: "The removal of the T-walls (big concrete barriers) from the streets [of Baghdad] was just a propaganda way to say to Iraqis, We have improved the situation', and it was just rubbish".

The Baghdad Operations Command which reports to Maleki on Aug. 20 said it had detained 11 Iraqi security officers in connection with the bombings. They included the commanders of two battalions stationed in the areas where the bombings occurred, the chiefs of intelligence and the police and the top traffic wardens there. It was not clear if they were charged with negligence or complicity. The arrests drew derision from many.

Hadi al-Ameri, the Shi'ite chairman of parliament's security committee, said the army command and intelligence operations had to be replaced. He added: "We have six intelligence services. How did these trucks get into this sensitive area?" Female Shi'ite MP Zainab Ken'ani said: "They took this [arrest] action to absorb the anger of the people. These small officers had nothing to do with those incidents".

Under Maleki's orders, the army and security forces and their ministries do not want to give such attacks any degree of significance, to prevent the population from losing confidence on the Baghdad government after the June 30 US withdrawal from the cities.

Rtd Col Peter Mansour, a senior adviser to the top US commander in Iraq in 2007 and 2008, said the Iraqi government was unlikely to ask the US military to resume its presence in Baghdad. He added: "Regrettably, I think we can't go back in", saying such a move would in any event be unpalatable to most Americans and Iraqis. He said: "The Iraqi government got ahead of itself. It is declaring the war over when it is far from over. We no longer have coercive leverage. Now the challenge is to persuade Part of what needs to change is Maleki's behaviour".

Rtd Lt-Col Doug Ollivant, a US planner in Baghdad in 2007 who recently served as an Iraq expert on the US National Security Council, said the recent attacks did not appear likely to plunge the country back to the 2006-07 Sunni-Shi'ite war. He added: "At the strategic level the bombings don't appear to be having the effect al-Qaeda wants. It's not rekindling a civil war. The satellite television networks are exaggerating this matter in an attempt to affect the political process. The situation remains under control, and the war against terrorism continues".

The Aug. 19 bombing outside the Foreign Ministry killed 66 and wounded 315. The blast was particularly deadly as the government had removed some of the concrete walls the US military had erected. At the Finance Ministry, there were 35 killed and 248 wounded.

Iranian Arms Seized: Un-named officials on Aug. 18 said Iraqi and US troops had seized a rocket launcher loaded with a dozen Iranian-made rockets aimed at an American base in Basra. The US military said Iraqi and American forces searched Basra's outskirts after hearing explosions near the base at night on Aug. 16. Iraqi forces took 16 rockets and arrested three in connection with the operation without giving further details.

A spokesman for the Basra police force, which took part in the operation, said a rocket launcher loaded with 13 Grad rockets, positioned on the back of a pick-up truck, was found in the Shatt al-Arab district north-east of Basra. There was no explanation for the discrepancy in the number of rockets.

Iraqi military spokesman Lt-Col Rafei' al-Jawad said: "They came from a neighbouring country", refusing to mention Iran. The New York Times on Aug. 19 reported: "An Iraqi Army officer in Basra, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the information to the news media, said the rockets came from Iran". Three US soldiers were killed in a rocket attack on their base in Basra in July. In April, US troops took responsibility for southern Iraq, including Basra, from departing British forces.

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