Nigeria - Part 4 - The Decision Makers.

The persons in charge of petroleum policy in Nigeria are President Umaru Yar'Adua, veteran Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, and three junior ministers - one in charge of oil, one for natural gas, and one for electric power. Next comes the group managing director of the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp (NNPC). Also taking part in the decision making process for this sector are the ministers of finance, foreign affairs and other key portfolios, as well as the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Yar'Adua was sworn in as a president on May 29, 2007. His predecessor was Rtd Gen Olusegun Obasanjo, who served two terms from 1999. Before Obasanjo came to power in 1999, the petroleum sector and the other vital segments of Nigeria's economy were controlled by military dictatorships. Successive regimes had squandered hundreds of billions of US dollars in oil revenues. The 1979 presidential elections were won by a mild-mannered former civil servant, Shehu Shagari, who promised to end corruption and the mismanagement of Nigeria's vast resources. But his government turned out to be a disaster. Corruption and mismanagement brought it down four years later, as the military again took over in 1983 and stayed in power until May 1999.

Under the military regimes, the decision making process for petroleum was unstable. Most petroleum E&P contracts and crude oil supply deals used to go through people connected to the generals. There used to be numerous administrative changes in the petroleum ministry, NNPC and the other institutions.

The situation has not improved much since Obasanjo came to power in 1999 as a civilian heading a non-military administration and Yar'Adua was elected as president in 2007. The country remains heavily indebted. Ethnic violence and labour unrest have caused a major part of the country's crude oil production capacity to remain shut in since March 2003 (see Parts 1-3).

Al-Qaeda-affiliated Neo-Salafi groups, by far the most violent and fanatic strain in Sunni Islam, are reaching out from their bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan to turn militant organisations in the Middle East and Africa into franchises charged with intensifying attacks on Western targets. The US-led war on terror now is aiming to target the Neo-Salafi bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan (see news8AfPakAug24-09).

Al-Qaeda's affiliates are spreading to Africa, and one of the related gangs is the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, a mainly exiled organisation which is also devoted to the overthrow of Col. Mu'ammar Qadhafi's regime. Al-Qaeda has training camps in Mali, attracting recruits from Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Niger and Nigeria. There is talk of jihadis entering the UK among thousands of Nigerians who travel weekly to and from Britain (see news18-IranIraqUSApr30-07).

Touring Africa, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Aug. 12 was in Abuja and met with President Yar'Adua and other leaders. She focused on the troubled Niger Delta and northern Nigeria. In the north, a Neo-Salafi insurgency was revived on Aug. 15 as a group affiliated with al-Qaeda said it was resuming its struggle after its forces were crushed earlier this month (see omt5NigrProspAug3-09). The US and EU are worried by an Iranian-Qaeda alliance which is causing violence in Yemen, the GCC area, Iraq and Africa (see news7YemnGCC-Aug17-09 & rim2IrqIRGC-Aug17-09).

In Nigeria's oil areas, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and other militias want monetary compensation and/or political leverage. They are the ones behind the attacks on the petroleum sector. In addition to abductions, thousands of foreign workers and their families have left the Niger Delta due to continued hostilities. Some companies have also left.

The MEND now is observing a 60-day truce in line with a government amnesty which went into force on Aug. 6. But since then other militants have attacked petroleum installations in the Niger Delta (see omt7NigrExp&GlobalPerspvAug17-09).

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