The Global Cities Conference at Harvard Design School occurred
almost exactly one year after 9-11. Up to the day of the conference, we
along with our partners in the conference, the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors, the RICS Foundation and The Counselors of Real
Estate, feared that a repeat terrorist incident would throw the world
again into turmoil and cause the conference to be cancelled. Many
flights were in fact cancelled and hotel rooms in Boston-normally very
tight in the Fall-were available at bargain prices.
As we now know, the one year anniversary of 9-11 occurred without
incident, and we all breathed an enormous sigh of relief. Still, the
events of a year before had a profound impact on the substance of the
conference. The long-term implications for urban development are just
beginning to be recognized. The immediate impact, however, on real
estate--from global investment to local confidence in urban
redevelopment decisions--are being felt in every aspect of the industry.
The substance of the conference is reported in a series of articles
in this volume. At the time of this writing, however, certain aspects
stand out. The theme of the conference--competition among global
cities--was brought home through a number of different dimensions
discussed on the various panels. The term "global cities"
refers to a select group of "world-class" cities that compete
with one another for capital, investment, companies, sporting events,
world fairs, art exhibits, and a host of other activities that give them
prominence on the world stage.
The conference featured many more cities than the top one or two
cities in each of the major countries represented. For example, New York
City may hold the top spot in the United States, but Los Angeles,
Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, and even Las Vegas, among others, are in
competition not only within the U.S. but also with major cities around
the world. As instantaneous communications, fluid capital, free trade,
and more open markets make the world ever smaller, cities must work
harder to create the kinds of environments that are attractive to
companies. A number of speakers reiterated the relationship between the
urban fabric and quality-of-life in cities--how certain cities, like
London and Paris, have managed to preserve a special quality while
remaining competitive.
Joel Kotkin created somewhat of an uproar by arguing that great
cities today are not automatically destined to become even greater:
"The real question for cities is what role they can play in this
new economy. Those that find niches will thrive; those that don't
are doomed to stagnate or decline. In the end, Cities are an act of
Inspiration and Vision...where the Vision has failed, so has the city.
Successful cities must inspire or die." Other speakers were much
more upbeat about the future of cities. Certainly, Dame Judith Mayhew,
head of the Corporation of the City of London, and Governor Ed Rendell
of Pennsylvania, while recognizing the challenges that cities face, were
optimistic about the many positive steps that well-motivated city
leaders can take to improve the competitive positions of their cities.
Lawrence Summers, President of Harvard University, spoke about
Harvard's own real estate expansion. Over the next twenty years, a
substantial part of the university will be located across the Charles
River in Aiston on land owned by the university. He underscored the
fundamental importance of creating a unique sense of place in order to
motivate Harvard's graduate schools to move to a new campus. He
also spoke of the implications for a sustained period of low inflation
and low interest rates, and the special problems of managing an economy
when interest rates are so low that monetary policy has little room to
maneuver.
If there was a consensus to be heard among the participants at the
end of the conference, it was that the ever-shrinking world makes our
understanding of the forces that make cities rise and fall ever more
important. We still have much to learn about the complex interaction
between private investment and public policy-what cities can do to make
themselves more attractive and more competitive. People in the real
estate industry have a unique lens through which to view the growth and
decline of cities. If the conference improved our understanding of the
forces that influence urban futures, then it could be deemed a success.
This issue is a first-time collaboration of the American Real
Estate Society, The Counselors of Real Estate, and the RICS Foundation
to produce a joint issue of the Journal of Real Estate Portfolio
Management and Real Estate Issues. It combines articles about the Global
Cities Conference with related papers on international real estate
investment. I am indebted to my colleague, Hugh Kelly, for managing the
collection and assemblage of articles for The Counselors. Stephen Brown,
Director of Research for the RICS Foundation, and I have worked together
to assemble the articles for the refereed section of the journal. These
articles have passed JREPM's standard blind review process for
inclusion in the journal. We are particularly grateful to a number of
reviewers for JREPM who have turned around reviews in a record-short
period of time. We are also indebted to the authors who have responded
in equally short time to requests for revision--some minor, some
substantial.
The issue contains four articles that are part of the
refereed-paper section. All four address aspects of international real
estate investment. With the exception of Glenn Mueller and Randy
Anderson's article, "The Growth and Performance of
International Public Real Estate Markets," the articles focus on
real estate in individual countries. Collectively, they provide new
insights into important real estate issues in Europe and Asia.
Glenn Mueller and Randy Anderson assess the growth of public real
estate markets around the world. They note that the U.S. market is by
far the largest; other markets have yet to reach the size that give
institutional investors sufficient liquidity. They conclude that public
real estate markets for the most part offer investors attractive returns
and low correlations. However, for a number of reasons cited in the
paper, public real estate markets in most countries still have a long
way to go to attract significant institutional capital.
Richard Feiser and Bing Wang focus on non-performing loans (NPL) in
China --one of the most important problems that China must resolve as
part of its entry into the World Trade Organization and imminent
competition from western banks. Peiser and Wang evaluate fifteen major
issues that must be addressed in order to reduce uncertainty and
motivate foreign investors to enter the Chinese NFL market in force.
They conclude that the Chinese have demonstrated a strong commitment at
the national level to deal aggressively with the NFL problem, but it
remains to be seen whether foreign investors will be able to get control
of real estate assets quickly at the local level and convert them into
cash - a necessity if China is going to realize higher NFL recovery
rates and lower ultimate losses from bad loans.
Sofia Dermisi reports the results of a survey on how the Internet
is currently being used by owners, brokers, and investors involved in
the office market in Boston and London. She finds that the Internet is
still being used primarily for information gathering and dissemination.
It is significantly reducing the total processing time for lease and
sale transactions, but it has yet to be used very much to consummate
actual transactions. She concludes that a common online platform will
enhance the transparency of transactions, but the major
participants--brokers, lawyers, and appraisers--will resist the
implementation of such a platform as long as they feel their income is
threatened.
We trust that members of the American Real Estate Society, The
Counselors of Real Estate, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors,
and the Harvard real estate community will find the Joint Issue of
interest. Through better understanding of what is occurring in different
parts of the world, meetings like the Global Cities Conference hopefully
give each of us better insight into our own small part of the world, and
how it fits into the larger picture.
Richard Peiser
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Stephen Brown
London, England
COPYRIGHT 2002 The Counselors of Real
Estate Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.
Copyright 2002, Gale Group. All rights
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NOTE: All illustrations and photos have been removed from this article.