MONSANTO'S SEEDS/TRAITS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
MID-TERM GROWTH.
Significant growth in Monsanto's seeds and traits business is
expected to drive the company's mid-term growth, according to Hugh
Grant, chairman, president and chief executive officer. Grant
underscored the company's expectation of compounded annual
earnings-per-share (EPS) growth of 10 percent in 2005 and 2006. He said
he believed the growth will be driven by the company's corn
business and its next generation of biotechnology traits.
As a part of the business update, Grant confirmed the
company's EPS guidance for fiscal year 2004, expected in the range
of $1.40 to $1.50 on an ongoing basis. The company now expects to
deliver roughly 45 percent of the fiscal year EPS in the first half of
the year. Grant said favorable timing associated with sales of
Monsanto's seed and trait products resulted in the decision to
shift the quarterly EPS guidance outlook.
Additionally, Grant confirmed the company's free cash flow
guidance, with free cash flow generation for fiscal year 2004 expected
to be in the range of $350 million to $400 million. The company expects
net cash provided by operations to be in the range of $540 million to
$570 million and net cash required by investing activities to be in the
range of $170 million to $190 million.
Grant indicated that the company's 2004 and mid-term growth
expectations were achievable because of the success of the
company's seeds and traits strategy.
"As our seeds and traits business increasingly takes the lead
in our portfolio, the growth it delivers will propel the growth for all
of Monsanto," said Grant. "Success in seeds and traits
requires experience, access and execution, and Monsanto has the base and
the strategy to lead this area of growth for the agricultural
industry."
Successive Rounds of Growth From Seeds and Traits
In his presentation, Grant focused on Monsanto's seeds and
traits strategy, explaining that the company has built its strategy on
three successive rounds of seed and trait innovation. The first round
was dominated by significant advancement in seed breeding and
first-generation biotech products -- like Monsanto's portfolio of
insect-protected and herbicide- tolerant crops.
With growth continuing in this first round, Monsanto has already
seen initial business growth in the second round -- a round of
innovation focused on second-generation biotech offerings and an
increased emphasis on multiple stacked traits.
"Monsanto is already moving to second-generation products that
give us a tremendous competitive advantage as other companies bring
'me-too' products to the market," said Grant.
Grant cited an "intensity index" of U.S. biotech traits
that shows significant penetration of multiple Monsanto traits for key
crops on each acre planted with biotech crops. For instance, in cotton,
for the 2004 planting season, Monsanto estimates an intensity index of
approximately 1.5 -- meaning Monsanto believes there are approximately
1.5 Monsanto traits being planted on every acre growing biotech cotton.
Similarly, for 2004, the projected intensity index for corn is 1.2, with
continued growth in 2005 and 2006 as a result of the introduction of
second-generation traits and increased penetration of stacked traits.
Building on the foundation established in the first two rounds,
Grant indicated that Monsanto's rich product pipeline offers new
traits in the third round that will address new market needs and fuel
longer-term growth for the company.
"Concepts that were just drawing-board ideas a few years ago
are already being tested in the field," he said. "For
instance, last year, Monsanto had good early field success with
drought-tolerant corn that could eventually help farmers maintain yields
in times of significant water shortage."
Update on Monsanto's Value-Capture System in Brazil
Grant also provided an update on Monsanto's initiatives in
Brazil, where progress is being made on a value-capture system for
Roundup Ready soybeans for the 2004 season.
"We've been able to check off a few of the first key
milestones, including developing a grain-based value-capture concept and
signing contracts with the major global grain handlers," said
Grant. "But, there are still some important steps -- including
completing enrollment of local elevators and processors -- before the
system is fully instituted."
Even if all of milestones are successfully completed in the Brazil
value- capture system, Grant indicated that the company expects the
initial start-up costs associated with this program to offset any
potential additional earnings for Monsanto in 2004.
Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) is a leading provider of
technology-based solutions and agricultural products that improve farm
productivity.
For more information, http://www.monsanto.com or call 314/694-8387.
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