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Colombia: blame it on the rain.


by Brown, Greg
Latin Trade • August, 2007 •

A rocketing domestic economy in long-suffering Colombia is being driven, banking experts say, by increased housing credit, higher tax collection, and rising foreign investment. Sounds like good news for the Andean star economy of late.

Yet growth is predictably driving inflation, too, say analysts at Banco Santander, and that will likely force the Central Bank to tighten access to money by more than it had once planned. The Spanish bank is calling for inflation rates later in the year to reach the upper end of the bank's comfort zone, perhaps ending as high as 4.5% compared to the previous full year.

Yet the biggest culprit in the Colombian inflation spike is not just from the ostensibly good things--more money for housing and more investor interest from abroad but the simple cost of food. That cost, the bank said, is being driven by the wet, stormy weather associated with the El Nino weather pattern, which can drag on for months and either flood or parch agriculture. Once volatile food costs are taken out, inflation is bit more manageable. Nevertheless, Colombia's money chiefs say that they will do what it takes to staunch the money flow, ratcheting up rates if need be to abate Colombia's current economic fever.


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Copyright 2007 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.
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