Steady optimism, steady spending in Singapore.

In a June 15, 2007 release distributed to the press Statistics Singapore reported, "Overall retail sales declined 5.2 percent in April 2007 over March 2007." When adjusted for seasonal variations, retail sales rose 3.5 percent.

As an indication of consumer spending and confidence in the economy, the volatility of retail sales provides a sometimes contradictory point of view. And that is what the graph above--in the absence of the (gray) trend line--delivers.

The trend of monthly changes in retail sales is very nearly flat. A calculation of the average change in the current price retail sales index for the period of the graph comes in at minus 0.3 percent. There is likely no meaningful statistical difference between the slight upward slope of the trend line and the slight downward direction of the average.

The clear message of the graph is that Singapore's consumers are and have been spending at a steady pace for the past 13 months.

In its half yearly online survey of global consumer confidence, the international market research and polling firm ACNielsen said that Singapore consumer confidence was 111 points. The headline of its July 4, 2007 press release read, "Singaporeans remain Optimistic--Sustaining All Time High Confidence Level." The reference is to the fact that Singapore scored the same in Nielsen's October 2006 survey.

The most recent survey was conducted the last two weeks of April 2007 in 47 markets around the world.

The idea of sustained confidence matches the sustained retail sales trend illustrated by the Statistics Singapore figures from their monthly surveys as presented in the graph on page 1.

By way of comparison, Nielsen said, "In the six months since the survey was last conducted in October 2006, consumer confidence fell in 35 of the 47 countries covered by Nielsen's global consumer survey."

The main reasons Nielsen gave for consumer optimism in Singapore were the performance of the economy there, and favorable job prospects. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics, Singapore's economy expanded 7.9 percent in 2006. The IMF forecast for 2007 is for GDP expansion of 5.5 percent, and 5.7 percent for 2008.

A Nielsen spokesperson said, "More than eight in 10 Singaporeans (84 percent) are upbeat about local job prospects and this makes the country among the top 10 in the world showing such optimism." The IMF estimates Singapore's unemployment rate at very low 2.6 percent for both 2007 and 2008.

Even though Nielsen's confidence survey was conducted online, and therefore skewed to more prosperous Singaporeans--those with Internet access--the Nielsen survey is likely representative of a broad spectrum of the country's consumers because of Singapore's high per capita income, estimated at us$35,909 by the IMF.

Among other interesting facts about Singaporean consumers revealed by the Nielsen survey is the how spare cash is spent. Some 63 percent of respondents told Nielsen they would put their spare cash into savings, compared with a 43 percent world average. Half of respondents said they would take a vacation, and only 9 percent of respondents replied, "I have no spare cash."

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