Internet population to max-out at 80%: 20 February 2003. (Home: Analysis).(Brief Article)

Once everyone in the US who wants Internet access and can afford Internet access has it, the number of users should stabilize at roughly 80% of the country's population. Ben Macklin explains.

As the online population matures, the remaining offline population consists of those least likely to feel the need to use the Internet. Indeed, surveys show that those who currently do not use the Internet say that they have no compelling need to do so. It seems apparent that Internet penetration will peak at 75% to 80% of the US population, with the remainder of the population not able to afford or not interested in hooking up to the Net.

A recent UCLA survey shows that not having a computer continues to be the primary reason for not being online, but those who have no interest getting online follow closely behind.

Since there is a strong correlation between income and PC ownership and, likewise, a strong correlation between PC ownership and Internet access, the fact that PC prices are falling is helping bridge the digital divide.

The Yankee Group predicts continued PC growth over the next five years so that 84 million, or three-quarters of all households, will have a PC by 2007.

Since the 2000 Census, PCs have steadily become more affordable in the United States. According to Banc of America Securities' estimates, average selling prices for PCs fell by 7.2% in 2000 in the US, and another 3.7% in 2001.

US PC sales data gathered by NPD Intelect indicated that in the third quarter of 2001, PCs selling in the $500 to $1,500 price range were selling the best, with $800 PCs selling the best of all.

Data from Gartner Dataquest shows that the average selling price for PCs in the US will continue to fall over the coming years, which will help expand the Internet user base across the country.

The US Internet population continues to grow, but at an ever decreasing rate. By the end of this decade the US internet population will max-out at between 75% and 85%, with all those wanting or being able to afford Internet access having it available to them at home, work, school, university and on their mobile device.

Ben Macklin is a Senior Analyst with eMarketer and author of the newly-released North America Online report. You can reach him at bmacklin@emarketer.com with comments, questions or suggestions.