Why Is Mondelez (MDLZ) Down 2.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
Mondelez (MDLZ) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mondelez (MDLZ). Shares have lost about 2.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mondelez due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mondelez Q2 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Beat
Mondelez International reported second-quarter 2021 numbers. Adjusted earnings came in at 66 cents per share, which climbed 1.6% year over year on a constant-currency or cc basis. The metric came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Adjusted earnings growth was backed by operating gains and reduced outstanding shares, somewhat offset by increased taxes.
Net revenues advanced 12.4% to $6,642 million and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,454 million. The upside was driven by strong organic net revenue growth of 6.2% as well as increased sales from the Hu, Grenade and Gourmet Food buyouts. Positive impacts from currency translations also contributed to growth. Moreover, favorable volumes and pricing drove organic net revenues, which were somewhat offset by adverse mix. Revenues from emerging markets increased 19.6% to $2,293 million, while the same increased 16.5% on an organic basis. During the quarter, it saw double-digit growth in India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia, as well as a high-single-digit improvement in China.
Management remains encouraged by the underlying emerging market strength. Revenues from developed markets rallied 8.9% to $4,349 million, while the same inched up 1.3% on an organic basis. Solid consumption trends led to the upside in developed markets. Region-wise, revenues in Latin America; Asia, Middle East & Africa; Europe; and North America increased 30.9%, 17.4%, 15.7% and 1.1% year over year, respectively. On an organic basis, revenues increased 33.7%, 7% and 5.4%, in Latin America; Asia, Middle East & Africa; and Europe, respectively. However, the same declined 0.3% in North America.
Adjusted gross profit ascended $168 million at cc. Adjusted gross profit margin expanded 20 basis points (bps) to 39.9% on the back of increased pricing and manufacturing productivity, partly negated by escalated raw-material costs and adverse product mix. The company’s adjusted operating income rose $68 million at cc. Adjusted operating income margin expanded 30 bps to 16.2% courtesy of decreased manufacturing costs, better pricing and reduced overheads. This was somewhat offset by escalated raw-material costs, adverse product mix and increased advertising and consumer promotions spend.
Mondelez ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,938 million, long-term debt of $17,046 million and total equity of $27,620 million. The company generated net cash from operating activities of $1,792 million during the six months ended Jun 30, 2021. Adjusted free cash flow was $1,382 million during the same period. Management expects free cash flow to be more than $3 billion in 2021.
During the second quarter, the company distributed $900 million to shareholders through cash dividends and share buybacks. Concurrent to its earnings release, management announced an 11% hike in quarterly cash dividend, taking it to 35 cents per share on its Class A common stock. This is payable on Oct 14, 2021, to shareholders of record as of Sep 30.
Mondelez remains focused on revenue growth management capacity, including simplification and pricing initiatives especially to combat commodity, logistics and labor cost inflation. Management, in fact, envisions these costs to further increase in the second half of 2021. While Mondelez is focused on managing these costs, it also anticipates some pressure points during the second half of 2021. It remains committed to making brand investments. Further, it is on track with reshaping the portfolio to elevate its focus on the snacking category. In this regard, the company in the second quarter announced a deal to acquire Chipita. A robust first-half performance encouraged management to raise its organic net revenue growth guidance for 2021.
Mondelez now projects organic net revenues to increase more than 4% in 2021, up from above 3% growth expected earlier. The updated guidance indicates at least 3% growth in the second half of 2021. Management still anticipates adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow in high-single digits at cc. Its 2021 guidance reflects expectations of a more-than-normal level of pandemic-led volatility. Favorable currency rates are expected to increase net revenues by nearly 2%, while adjusted EPS is likely to see a positive impact of 9 cents by the same.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
At this time, Mondelez has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mondelez has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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