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How Will Bank ETFs Fare This Earnings Season?

Big banks will start releasing their quarterly numbers next week. The outlook is pretty bullish this time thanks to economic improvement and a rise in yields.

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This story originally appeared on Zacks

Big banks will start releasing their quarterly numbers next week. The outlook is pretty bullish this time thanks to economic improvement and a rise in yields. Let’s delve into the earnings potential of the big six banking companies that could drive the performance of the sector ahead.

- Zacks

According to our methodology, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) when combined with a positive Earnings ESP increases our chances of predicting an earnings beat, while companies with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) are best avoided. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Inside Our Surprise Prediction

Among the big six, JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPMWells Fargo & Company WFCGoldman GS and Bank of America Corporation (BAC) are likely to report on Oct 13.

JPM has a Zacks Rank #2 and Earnings ESP of +1.77%. This strengthens the chances of an earnings beat.

Goldman has a Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of +0.00%.

WFC has a Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of +1.15%.

BAC has a Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of +0.30%.

Citigroup Inc. C is expected to report on Oct 14. Citigroup has a Zacks Rank #3 and Earnings ESP of negative 2.17%.

On Oct 14, Morgan Stanley MS is likely to come up with its earnings release. Morgan Stanley has a Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of negative 0.85%.

What’s in Store This Earnings Season?

As discussed above, chances of a broad-based earnings beat are moderate. Analysts’ expectations for bank business conditions have improved as vaccine rollout and chances of more antiviral treatment boosted chances of a faster-than-expected economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus has acted as another tailwind.

This has reflected in the latest earnings estimates too, with Morgan Stanley’s current quarter EPS estimate of $1.70 increasing from $1.64 seven days back. The stock has witnessed consistent upward earnings estimate revisions in the past 30-, 60-, 90-day periods (when it was as low as $1.54).

The current-quarter EPS expectation for Goldman has increased from $9.52 a week ago to $9.70 now. Three months back, the estimate was $7.75. JPMorgan has seen the current-quarter earnings estimate rising from $2.86 to $2.99 in the past three months.

Bank of America’s current-quarter expectation has, however, gone down from 73 to 70 cents in the past three months. The same holds good for Citi, which saw the current-quarter EPS estimates going down from $1.81 to $1.73 in the past three months.  Wells Fargo has seen the current-quarter estimate rising from $1.00 to $1.04 in the past three-month period. However, the estimate has fallen by a cent in the past week.

Hence, investors pinning hopes on an upbeat earnings season must be keen on knowing how financial ETFs like iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF IYGiShares US Financials ETF IYFInvesco KBW Bank ETF KBWBFinancial Select Sector SPDR XLF and Vanguard Financials ETF VFH are placed before their earnings releases. These funds have considerable exposure to the aforementioned stocks.

Goldman has moderate exposure in the aforementioned ETFs. It is heavy on iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF IAI.

Bottom Line

Investors should note that if the stock market rally continues, long-term bond yields will likely stage an ascent, albeit at a moderate pace, given the global surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 cases.

Given a still-dovish Fed, a rise in long-term bond yields should work wonders for bank ETFs as this will widen banks’ net interest rate margin. So, whatever the earnings surprise is, investors can play these financial ETFs on the basis of yield curve movement.



 



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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Free Stock Analysis Report

 

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC): Free Stock Analysis Report

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report

 

Morgan Stanley (MS): Free Stock Analysis Report

 

Citigroup Inc. (C): Free Stock Analysis Report

 

Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF): ETF Research Reports

 

Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB): ETF Research Reports

 

iShares U.S. BrokerDealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI): ETF Research Reports

 

iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (IYG): ETF Research Reports

 

Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH): ETF Research Reports

 

iShares U.S. Financials ETF (IYF): ETF Research Reports

 

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