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Mosaic (MOS) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Mosaic's (MOS) Q3 results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher prices and demand for phosphate and potash.

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This story originally appeared on Zacks

The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 1, after the closing bell.



The fertilizer maker delivered an earnings surprise of around 43%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted an earnings surprise of 15.8% in the last reported quarter. The company’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher prices and demand for phosphate and potash.

 

Shares of Mosaic have rallied 124.9% in the past year compared with 70.2% rise of the industry.

- Zacks

 

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research





Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $3,803 million, which calls for an increase of 59.7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.



The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $1,317 million, which calls for an increase of 76.8% year over year.



The consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pinned at $677 million, which suggests an increase of 45.9% year over year.



The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $1,967 million, which calls for a rise of 72.5% year over year.

Some Factors at Play

Mosaic is expected to have benefited from higher demand across its markets and increased prices in the third quarter. It is likely to have gained from higher sales volumes in Phosphates and Potash units in the quarter.



The company, in its second-quarter call, said that it expects to realize a roughly $90-$100 per ton improvement in average realized price in its Phosphates segment sequentially in the third quarter. Moreover, it expects to achieve a $25-$35 per ton sequential increase in average realized prices in Potash in the third quarter.



Higher agricultural commodity prices and attractive farm economics are driving demand for fertilizers globally. Global phosphate markets remain robust on solid demand and pricing dynamics. Tight availability along with firm demand is driving up phosphate prices globally. Potash prices have also strengthened on the back of robust global demand, aided by strong grower economics and higher crop prices.



The company’s actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are also expected to have aided its profitability in the to-be-reported quarter. Transformational savings are also likely to have supported margins in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment.

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.



Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is -0.03%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.59. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.



Zacks Rank: Mosaic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:



Tronox Holdings plc TROX, scheduled to release earnings on Oct 27, has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.



The Chemours Company CC, scheduled to release earnings on Nov 4, has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.



Albemarle Corporation ALB, scheduled to release earnings on Nov 3, has an Earnings ESP of +8.73% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.



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