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Just when you were getting accustomed to your 802.11b Wi-Fi network, new technology reared its ugly head. Proxim, Intel and others have rolled out 54Mbps 802.11a wireless networks. But there's one difference: Proxim multiplexes its network to achieve speeds of up to 108Mbps.
of B2C online transactions will be conducted on devices other than a PC by 2005, compared with 0.2 percent in 2001.
SOURCE: Gartner Inc.
That's way faster than the standard 11Mbps Wi-Fi, so expect 802.11a networks to replace the slower version. But not before 2005, says Cahners In-Stat Group analyst Gemma Paulo. Vendors aren't in complete agreement on all aspects of the 802.11a standard. Meanwhile, 802.11b products are stable, have established distribution channels and cost half the price of 802.11a alternatives.
You can use 802.11b as a cheap way to network transient workgroups or for low-bandwidth-intensive data transfers where stability is valued. 802.11a bandwidth may be needed to share large graphic files or streaming PowerPoint presentations. Entrepreneurs might think about offering Internet access or DVD-quality videos in coffee shops, airports or other public venues.
It's not time to go 3g quite yet.
Put your plans for 3G wireless phone applications on the back burner. Any chance that the military would let its 1,700MHz band be auctioned off for 3G networks crumbled along with the World Trade Center. And that's a blessing in disguise for wireless carriers and users, says Rudy Baca, a global wireless analyst for Precursor Group in Washington, DC. Unlike their overseas competitors, U.S. providers won't have to spend billions in a band rush. U.S. customers won't need new $500 to $600 handsets to run 3G applications that aren't exactly mission-critical. ("NTT Docomo's killer apps are Hello Kitty ring tones and mobile karaoke," notes Baca.)
Network providers currently face increasing costs and falling per-capita revenues from a still rapidly growing base of users. Not surprising, their customers experienced more service problems that took longer to solve in 2001 compared to the year before, reports J.D. Power and Associates.
Expect a 3G-enabling bandwidth auction sometime in 2004, says Baca, and network rollouts in 2006, when applications will be compelling enough to get customers to buy up. Meanwhile, a more sympathetic FCC is likely to let large American operators buy smaller ones and consolidate second-generation networks into all-digital 2.5G networks. In an uncertain economy, that's a safer development target for entrepreneurs.
Mike Hogan is Entrepreneur's technology editor.
- Precursor Group
(202) 828-7800, www.precursorgroup.com.