This story appears in the
August 2005 issue of
Entrepreneur.
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Rather than regarding technology as a monolith, futurists Joel
A. Barker and Scott W. Erickson fracture it into a few major
subsystems and then use them to divine the future of technological
opportunity. In Five Regions of the Future (Portfolio,
$24.95), they identify the biggest region as "Super
Tech," which is about being bigger and better, and includes
nuclear power plants and SUVs. "Limits Tech" conserves
resources by means of, for instance, birth control and recycling.
"Local Tech" thinks small, with technology appropriate to
local needs, such as Segway scooters. "Nature Tech"
emphasizes natural solutions such as ethanol fuel and spider
silk-based materials. "Human Tech" operates on and in
ourselves with the likes of gene therapy and, in the world of
business, microlending.
The authors don't judge which technology is best. Instead,
they present each's underpinnings, advantages and
disadvantages, and suggest how they will develop over several
decades. Today's entrepreneurs may be able to use these
pathways to exploit future opportunities. For those who want to
know more, the authors refer readers to numerous experts and gurus
associated with each technology.
Design of the Times
Where did the iPod come from? In The Design of Things to Come (Wharton
School Publishing, $26.95), innovation experts Craig M. Vogel,
Jonathan Cagan and Peter Boatwright say transformational new
products such as Apple Computer's digital music player target
customer emotions, self-image and fantasy rather than gee-whiz
functionality. They look at the iPod, Swiffer mops, Ford's
F-150 pickup and other successful products to show how nearly any
entrepreneur can come up with a redefining innovation.
Mark Henricks is Entrepreneur's "Staff Smarts"
columnist.
