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The Navy in recent months has had to contend with several provoking
episodes at sea--Iranian small boats speeding at its cruisers,
destroyers and frigates; Russian bombers flying over its carriers; and
Chinese subs shadowing its warships.
Hard-to-detect submarines--such as quiet, diesel-electric
boats--are particularly vexing, Navy officials say. They contend that an
undersea arms race already has begun in the western Pacific.
Nations there in recent years have begun to acquire stealthy
diesel-electric submarines. Some of those nations, say Navy officials,
could one day threaten U.S. access to strategic coastal areas of the
world or interrupt the flow of commerce around the globe.
Although the Navy has the world's most technologically
advanced fleet--including state-of-the-art nuclear attack
submarines--officials acknowledge that these comparatively low-tech
diesel-electric boats could give an enemy an asymmetric advantage.
"The beauty about a diesel submarine is that it has the
potential to be far quieter than a nuclear submarine," says Guy
Stitt, president of AMI International, a Bremerton, Wash.-based company
specializing in naval market analysis. Diesel boats are propelled by
batteries when submerged and move through the water by diesel engines
when on the surface.
Once they have powered up their batteries, the submarines can sail
to the bottom of coastal waters and remain undetected for days. Though
they can't travel long distances or sail very quickly, advancements
in technologies, such as air-independent propulsion and fuel cells, have
allowed diesel submarines to extend theft operational ranges underwater.
But perhaps their best selling point is their relatively
inexpensive price tags. The Russians have sold diesel submarines for as
little as $200 million and the French have exported their Scorpene
submarines for $300 million.
"It is within the scope of many, many countries to be able to
afford them. They don't need a lot of them. They don't need to
sail them very far, and they don't have to be particularly
proficient with them," says Vice Adm. Samuel Locklear, commander of
the Navy's Third Fleet, which prepares strike groups to deploy to
the Pacific and the Middle East.
More than 39 nations possess diesel submarines. One of the latest
tallies indicates a total of 377 ships in the world, says Richard Dorn,
an analyst at AMI International. And there could be an uptick in the
next few years.
With China continuing to increase the size of its navy, a number of
neighboring nations also have begun to develop their undersea
capabilities.
"There's a push on in Asia that really seems to be driven
by China," says Stitt. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia all have
closed deals on diesel submarines, and now Thailand is following suit.
Driving the market in part is Russia, which during the past 18
months has been aggressively selling ships, including its Kilo-class
diesels.
"We've seen a huge increase in the number of sales that
they're booking for Kilos, primarily motivated by the need for
funds to strengthen their second tier shipbuilding groups," says
Stitt.
Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has lost many of its
secondary shipyard suppliers--the engine, pump and valve manufacturers,
piping companies and the like. But Russia is attempting to revitalize
those small companies.
"They're going out and making all these deals to sell
submarines and ships and using those funds to reinvigorate the industry,
which in turn will also benefit them in building up the Russian
fleet," says Stitt.
Russia has exported 30 Kilos around the globe and 26 are still in
active service. It will deliver two more submarines to Algeria by 2010,
five to Venezuela by 2020, and six to Indonesia by 2018. China received
its 12th and final Kilo last year.
The number of Kilos that are being sold is particularly concerning
because many of the submarines are equipped with Klub anti-ship cruise
missiles.
Some nations have a desire for regional hegemony and want to
strengthen their influence in an area. That's most definitely the
reason for President Hugo Chavez buying subs for Venezuela, says Stitt.
But for other nations, the reasons are less clear.
"There's a wide array of military assets you can buy, so
why would you buy a diesel-electric submarine? As far as I know,
it's not to protect your own port," says Locldear in an
interview at Third Fleet headquarters perched atop Point Loma in San
Diego.
That China's submarines are surfacing boldly near U.S.
warships is a telltale sign of newer advanced technologies, such as
acoustic tiles and cavitation-reducing propellers, that are being
employed on the submarines, says Stitt.
China's new Song-class diesel submarines have tracked U.S.
Navy ships operating in the seas near Japan and Taiwan. Last November,
after China denied the USS Kitty Hawk's port call in Hong Kong at
the last minute, a Chinese submarine shadowed the carrier as it entered
the Taiwan Straits on its return voyage to Yokosuka, Japan. In the late
fall of 2006, a Song-class submarine surfaced within torpedo range of
the Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan.
Despite the tensions, those episodes and the topic of submarines
did not come up directly in conversations with Chinese officials in
January, when the commander of Pacific Command, Adm. Timothy Keating,
visited the nation.
"We watch them carefully. It's an area of warfare at
which they're stretching a little bit," he told reporters
during a breakfast meeting in Washington, D.C. "Their numbers of
submarines are increasing. The capabilities resident in those submarines
are not unimpressive. They're pretty good--we're better."
China's fleet of nuclear and diesel submarines includes 10
Song class, 12 Kilo class, one Yuan class and 32 Romeo class.
"We know that they are continually expanding their reach in
what they view as their own areas of interest, and that their submarine
force is vital to expanding that reach," says Locklear.
The proliferation of diesel submarines in the Pacific is one of the
major factors behind the Navy's decision to move six submarines
from the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific Fleet, says Rear Adm. Joseph
Walsh, commander of the Pacific Submarine Force. Because more than 140
diesel subs are within reach of critical "choke points" in the
area, anti-submarine warfare is Pacific Fleet's top war-fighting
priority, he adds.
The Navy saw its anti-submarine warfare skills diminish after the
end of the Cold War. In those days, enemy Soviet nuclear submarines were
noisy, and could be detected with passive sonar.
But modern-day diesel submarines are not as easily heard,
particularly in regions of the seas where biological life and merchant
shipping can camouflage their acoustic signatures. It is there, in the
noisy waters of the littorals, where detecting submarines can be a
cat-and-mouse game, Navy officials say.
Rear Adm. John Waickwicz, who was the head of the Naval Mine and
Anti-Submarine Warfare Command until he retired in January, says the
Navy is looking at anti-submarine warfare in new ways.
"When you talk about countries that have 30, 40, or 50
submarines, you can't wait until they're around you, because
they're going to overwhelm you," he says.
Potential enemies have figured that to defeat the U.S. Navy, they
must "go out and buy submarines, and buy mines," he says.
The mine and anti-submarine warfare command is calling for the
deployment of a network of sonobuoys over a wide expanse of ocean to
detect enemy submarines. But the project has been marred by
technological and funding problems. The most significant hitch is that
the data collected by the sensors takes too long to analyze, says
Waickwicz. "You need to do it in real time to take action on
it."
False alarm rates on many of the fleet's current detection
technologies are too high, Waickwicz adds. That forces commanders to
waste resources on non-existent threats.
Officials insist that the Navy's anti-submarine warfare
capabilities are the best in the business, but they acknowledge that it
will take some time to hone the skills to combat stealthy diesel
submarines. Waickwicz says that training has improved in recent years,
but some individual units are not adequately prepared for at-sea
operations.
For example, some units have demonstrated sonar operator
proficiency on simulations that are not sophisticated enough to
replicate the real environment, which puts the sailors at a disadvantage
when they conduct operations at sea, says Rear Adm. Frank Drennan, the
new commander of the Naval Mine and Anti-Submarine Warfare Command.
"The requirements are still the same--they just have to work
on them in a challenging environment so that operators are truly
proficient when they go to sea," he says.
Hunting for quiet diesel submarines in the shallow waters of the
littorals is akin to trying to identify the sound of a single car engine
in the din of a major city, he says.
There are variations in the underwater topography, with sand bars,
coral reefs and channels. Different depths of water and changing
salinity and temperatures alter how sounds propagate. Marine life and
merchant shipping also complicate the search by generating ambient
noise.
The only technology that the Navy considers suitable for detecting
and tracking diesel submarines is active sonar. It disperses signals out
into the water where they bounce off of objects. Those echoes are
captured by hydrophones and interpreted by sonar technicians.
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