Population growth and sustainability: Canadian considerations.(IDEAS)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to briefly chart how Canada's population has grown and will continue to grow well into the 21st century. In so doing, we shall place this demographic increase into a broader international context by also considering U.N. projections at the world level. Of particular interest is the issue of environmental sustainability, both in Canada and for the planet. The world has been fixated on economic growth, but international conferences have concluded that we must turn from growth to sustainability as a primary objective. At the world level, there is little disagreement that slower population growth is best, reaching a maximum size as soon as possible. This paper considers Canada's projected demographic growth from this broader perspective. As natural increase moves toward zero, Canada has the advantage of maintaining population growth through immigration; that is, without involving growth of the total population at the world level. Yet without a more explicit focus on the relationship between population and the environment, demographers are not particularly well situated in answering a fundamental question that continues to remain largely unanswered in Canadian policy circles: What would be a sustainable level of population for Canada, considering not only issues relating to quality of life and economic well being, but also the carrying capacity of the Canadian environment, the need for biodiversity and the preservation of wilderness areas?

Le but des auteurs de cet article est d'illustrer brievement comment la population du Canada a augmente et continuera de le faire pendant une bonne partie du 21e siecle. Cette croissance est ensuite mise en perspective dans un plus vaste contexte international en considerant aussi les projections mondiales telles que determinees par I'ONU. La question de la perennite de I'environnement au Canada et sur toute la planete est I'un des enjeux importants traites dans cet article. L'obsession du monde pour la croissance economique se confronte aux conclusions des conferences internationales qui etablissent que le developpement durable doit etre I'objectif prioritaire. Peu de voix s'elevent dans le monde contre le fait qu'une augmentation lente de la population est souhaitable, et qu'elle doive atteindre sa taille maximale le plus rapidement possible. La projection de la croissance demographique du Canada est traitee par les auteurs dans cette perspective plus vaste. Comme la croissance demographique naturelle du Canada se rapproche du point zero, le pays a I'avantage de maintenir sa croissance demographique par I'immigration; ce qui par consequent, n'augmente pas la population totale de la planete. Jusqu'a maintenant, les demographes n'ont pas su focaliser leur approche de facon precise sur le rapport entre la taille de la population et I'environnement et sont done un peu mal positionnes pour repondre a une question fondamentale qui reste un mystere dans les spheres politiques canadiennes: quel serait le niveau de population durable souhaitable pour le Canada, en considerant non seulement les enjeux de niveau de vie et d'economie viable, mais aussi la capacite de I'environnement canadien, la necessite de preserver la biodiversite et la conservation de regions sauvages?

Keywords

Population growth, population projections, environmental sustainabillity, Canada

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to briefly chart how Canada's population has grown and will continue to grow through to 2017 and beyond. In so doing, we shall place this demographic increase into a broader international context by also considering U.N. projections at the world level. Of particular interest is the issue of environmental sustainability, both in Canada and for the planet. There are many challenges associated with accommodating larger numbers without seriously compromising the well-being of future generations.

Canada's Demographic Situation: Sustained Population Growth into the 21st Century

Canada's population was estimated at 32,852,800 as of April 1, 2007, up 1.01 per cent from the previous year (Statistics Canada, 2007). While many Canadians think of this as relatively slow growth, this rate is faster than that of most other developed nations. For example, the annual growth rate for the total of Western Europe in 2004 was about 0.24 per cent, less than a fourth of the current Canadian growth rate. While Canada is not a particularly large country in terms of overall population size, it is continuing to grow at a faster rate than most developed nations due to both continued natural increase and international migration.

Despite having below replacement fertility since the early 1970s, Canada's population is projected to experience positive natural increase (more births than deaths) for several more decades. Even with low fertility, populations can continue to grow due to the demographic momentum inherent in the age structure and the relative number of women at reproductive ages. Statistics Canada (2005) captures this momentum in its last round of population projections with the release of three alternate scenarios (Figure 1). Projected natural increase is expected to become negative in 2020, 2030 and 2046 in their low, medium and high scenarios respectively. As natural increase gradually declines in importance, international migration will likely serve to maintain population growth. Unlike much of Europe, Canada does not appear to be on the edge of imminent population decline.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

With the assumptions indicated in Figure 1, Canada's population is projected to be 34.6 to 36.4 million by 2017 (Figure 2). Further into the future, the uncertainty of these projections increases, for populations in 2051 of 36.2, 42.0, and 48.2 million respectively. Over the last 50 years, from 1956-2006, the population of Canada increased by about 120 percent, while in comparison the next 50 years would see increases of 17 percent, 35 percent and 55 percent respectively. While parts of Europe are already experiencing population decline, even Statistics Canada's low growth projection expects continued growth through to at least 2039.

The Broader International Context

Over the last century and a half, global population size has increased spectacularly, from about 1.3 billion in 1867 to about 6.7 billion in 2007. While Canada's population has also grown rapidly over this same period, it currently ranks 35th across 180 nations in terms of population size, while it is second after Russia in total geographic area. Canada's biosphere has been significantly altered by agriculture, industrialization, resource use and pollution, with reduced biodiversity and increased ecosystem degradation. For instance, human activities have significantly reduced wildlife populations across Canada, with an estimated 35 animal and plant species recently classified as either extinct or extirpated, 225 considered to be endangered and another 141 classified as threatened (Statistics Canada, 2008). As a result of human activities and industrialization, over 360 chemical compounds have been identified in Canada's waterways including many persistent toxic chemicals, such as alkylated lead, benzo(a)pyrene, DDT, mercury and mirex--all very destructive to aquatic ecosystems and potentially hazardous to human populations (Environment Canada, 2004).

At the current rate of global population growth, the world's population increases by about 77 million annually, which is more than twice the size of Canada's current population. As another comparison, the world is experiencing a growth amounting to about 210,000 persons per day (comparable in magnitude to adding more than a medium sized city such as Saskatoon or Regina to the world population). The UN medium growth projection on a global scale forecasts an increase in the order of 40 per cent over the next 50 years--up to 9.2 billion (Figure 3). In terms of future growth, there is obvious uncertainty, as the UN low growth scenario projects a population of 7.79 billion by 2050 while the high growth scenario projects 10.76 billion. The UN low growth scenario assumes a major fertility decline (with global Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropping from its current 2.55 to only about 1.5 by 2050), while the medium growth suggests a more modest decline (with a drop from 2.55 to about 2.0) and the high growth scenario projects very little decline (down to about 2.5). The UN projections also assume improvements in mortality, except in the selected parts of Africa where the impact of HIV/AIDS is devastating. These projections imply no further doubling of the world population, yet significant increases in absolute numbers at 1.3, 2.7 and 4.2 billion between 2005 and 2050 in the low, medium and high scenarios.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

A Sustainable Future

The concept of environmental sustainability has long been endorsed by the United Nations and its many development agencies. One of the most commonly cited definitions of sustainability can be attributed to early work by the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987:43) which highlighted the importance of "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". While this reference is somewhat vague, it essentially refers to maintaining or improving upon the economic and social welfare of societies without doing irreparable damage to the environment. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development devoted a chapter of its final report to developmental questions and developed a Programme of Action that would result in population growth "at levels below the United Nations medium projection".

In terms of sustainable development, Canada has clear advantages, as there are few countries in the world as favored, with a low population density and abundance in terms of forests, arable land, mineral resources and renewable fresh water. At least partially due to the abundance of natural resources and high standard of living, Canada has consistently ranked among the most environmentally healthy countries in the world (Prescott-Allan, 2001; Yale Centre for Environmental Law and Policy, 2005).

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