Global warming: unexpected impacts on Montana's economy.

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Montana's summers will be longer and winters shorter. Fishing season will start earlier. We won't have to shovel driveways or snowplow the roads as often. Early spring blizzards that kill off livestock will happen only once in awhile. In 30 years, when temperatures have risen 2 degrees due to climate changes, Montana will probably be better off than its southern neighbors. In fact, our state may see increased migration trends as people come to Montana to cool off.

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"That's an interesting spin on global warming," says Steve Running, a University of Montana climate scientist who is one of a handful of American scientists and the only Montanan asked to author the climate change section of the report on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Published in February, the report examines climate change in North America.

"Montana tends to be kind of a cold place, and it's getting nicer by most people's standards," Running says.

While the idea of warmer weather might be appealing to some, things like drought, water shortages, and increasing wildfires during the summer months are not so desirable.

In a recent roundtable discussion, Steve Running and economists, industry experts, and editors from the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) and UM's Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) discussed climate changes and warming trends that are occurring in Montana. Industry experts then interpreted what these climate changes might mean for the state's important industries: tourism, forest products, energy, agriculture, and health care. The roundtable included: Steve Running, UM climate scientist; Paul Polzin, BBER director; Norma Nickerson, ITRR director; Charles Keegan and Todd Morgan, director and assistant director of forest products industry research; Pat Barkey, BBER director of health care industry research; Julie Ehlers, BBER marketing directors; and Shannon Furniss, Montana Business Quarterly editor.

After the fact, industry experts contributed additional information, opinions, and speculation for this article. Daphne Herling, director of community relations for BBER and Montana Kids Court, provided valuable information about health-related issues. Vince Smith, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University, and Luther Talbert, MSU professor in the Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology Department, provided information for the agriculture section.

Climate Changes

In Montana, the most noticeable signals for climate change include an earlier snow melt, an earlier start to the spring growing season, and a more pronounced mid-summer drought period, Running says.

Thirty years ago, snow melts occurred around the beginning of April. In recent years, they have occurred in mid-March. In 30 years--the time period set for the discussion--snow melts will occur in late February if this trend continues. The growing season currently begins a month earlier than it did 30 years ago, and summers are longer, hotter, and drier with lower river flows and more wildfires. Over the next 30 years, temperatures will be about 2 degrees warmer.

Some climate models suggest that Montana's precipitation will increase from its average of about one inch per month. Increased precipitation will not offset higher temperatures, though, and drought will be based on a hotter, drier climate, Running says. Montana could end up with more seasonality--a little more precipitation in the winter and a little less in the summer.

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"In the West, in the warm mountains like the Cascades, they're already seeing a greater percent age of rain than snow in the winter," he says. "For us, that hasn't occurred so much."

Dramatic climate changes are certainly evident in Montana's Glacier National Park (see photos below). The glaciers have receded rapidly since the park's establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. Some scientists predict that the glaciers in Glacier National Park will disappear within the next 30 years.

Climate changes are occurring on plains and in mountains--at all elevation levels, Running says. After studying 50-year historical trends for towns on the east and west sides of the state, Running discovered that temperature trends are pretty consistent across the state, and he says he has no reason to expect them to be dramatically different.

So what impact, if any, will these global warming trends have on Montana's basic industries?

Tourism

Around 10 million people visit Montana every year to fish, hunt, snowmobile, ski, sightsee, and visit friends and family, generating millions of dollars per year for the state's economy.

Spring and Summer

Temperature changes have already had an impact on Montana's tourism industry, and this trend will continue to accelerate in the next 30 years. We've already experienced streams and rivers running so low that the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks has been forced to close them to fishing. Forests and recreation areas have been closed due to wildfire danger. Wildfires are probably our No. 1 problem, with de-watering of our streams coming in second. At press time, many Montana rivers had already been closed to afternoon and evening fishing. Record-breaking temperatures caused these closures earlier in the summer than in previous years.

One way tourism-based businesses have coped with midsummer drought and forest fires is to encourage people to come to Montana earlier. Fishing outfitters are starting in March, a month earlier than usual. It's warmer in March and smoky skies and dry rivers aren't usually a threat until later in the summer. Other businesses might consider pushing their active seasons earlier.

Fall

Wildlife watching and hunting bring many tourists to Montana. While penguins and polar bears may suffer the effects of global warming (in their case, possible extinction), it shouldn't have too much impact on our state's wildlife on the 30-year horizon. Luckily, our wildlife--particularly in the mountains--can just go up in elevation as the temperature rises. So, tourists can still come to see deer, elk, bison, bears, wolves, and mountain lions.

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Some niche species may be in trouble some years from now. Wolverines, which den in the snow, are already in trouble. The southern populations of wolverines in the Sierra Mountains are already becoming extinct.

Over the next 30 years, hunters will probably see more game than before. There will probably be less winterkill because late-winter blizzards will no longer wipe out herds by the thousands.

Watch out for bears, though. Bears may spend less time hibernating and more time eating from their favorite huckleberry patch and rummaging through garbage cans.

Winter

The 2005-2006 season was a good snow year for Montana's ski resorts, with nearly 1.3 million skier visits. The previous year was a bad snow year, with just under 1 million skier visits. Ski resorts will continue to be vulnerable as the climate changes. For example, many locals grew up skiing at Marshall Mountain just outside of Missoula. Marshall struggled with snow cover for years and finally closed several years ago. All resorts will likely experience a shorter season; ski areas might be wise to think about summer recreation opportunities like hiking and mountain biking to offset the shorter winter.

Forest Products

Global warming will increase forest growth throughout Montana, Running says.

"Right now most of our forest land tends to be in temperature-limited ecosystems rather than water-limited. The 30-year window we're talking about is probably the bit of good news. But as you get to the drier end of the forest, it's going to be all about water, not temperature."

Water shortages won't be our only concern. As forests become more dense, disease, insects, and drought will likely become more of a threat. Weak, overstocked forests also provide more fuel for fire (see sidebar on page 6 for more on fire). "Thinning trees will become a pivotal part of forest economics," Running says.

In British Columbia, a massive mountain pine beetle epidemic has affected millions of acres of forest land. Pine beetles and other insects have attacked Montana's forests over the years. While it seems logical to tie increasing insect populations to global warming, there are no solid studies proving it to be the case. Further research would probably determine that there is a link.

To ensure healthy, vigorous trees, forest managers should choose more southern sources for seed stock so that the trees we plant will be better adapted to a warmer climate.

They also need to be diligent about thinning and density regulation, Running says.

The Bureau's forest industry researchers indicated that increased growth rates in Montana's forests could increase the volume of timber products available. Larger, more intense wildfires and increased insect activities could lead to higher levels of tree mortality, which, over the long term, might offset increased forest growth.