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Random and chaotic may be how the vast consumer marketplacelooks to most of us, but when futurist Faith Popcorn scans theglobe, she sees major trends that propel many consumer buyingdecisions--from "cocooning" (where Americans have turnedinto homebodies) through "pleasure revenge" and"small indulgences" (where we puff cigars between nibblesof Godiva chocolates). Not only does Popcorn describe today'strends, but she also pinpoints the forces shaping tomorrow'smarketplace. And a stream of big businesses contract with hermarketing consulting firm BrainReserve to get this scoop.
Is Popcorn's picture of tomorrow on the mark? "Ihaven't been wrong about a trend yet," she claims. And shepredicts her new book Clicking (HarperCollins) will helpeven more entrepreneurs start and grow their businesses. Read onfor her tips on how to get rich betting on tomorrow.
Entrepreneur:Why do you say clicking is crucial forentrepreneurs?
Faith Popcorn: Clicking is about changing yourself andyour business to fit the trends. It's about being in sync withwhat's coming tomorrow. You click when you're in the rightplace, at the right time, doing the right things.
Clicking is an acronym. "C" stands for courage."L" is for letting go--maybe you're not happy doingwhat you do and you need to let it go. "I" is forinsight, seeing what you want to be. "C" is forcommitment to change. And "K" is for know-how--gettingthe skills you need to make things happen. When you click, you seethe future clearly and are ready to seize opportunities.
As an entrepreneur, when you understand the future, you'llmake fewer mistakes. As a marketer, trend knowledge is invaluable.To be where the consumers are just before they get there, offeringthese consumers what they didn't know they wanted, spellssuccess.
Entrepreneur:What's the difference between a fadand a trend?
Popcorn: Trends are big and broad. A fad is shorter induration--a flash in the pan--and fewer people are involved. Forinstance: Punk hair colors and nose rings are fads. But trends aredifferent--they are giant in terms of how many people theyinvolve--and they last at least 10 years, sometimes longer.Cocooning is going into its 20th year, for example.
Do trends apply everywhere? The answer is a qualified"no." If a region or part of the world is under severefinancial hardship and people have no money to buy what they wouldlike, they can't be considered an active and viable part of the"trendscape," the consumer scene. Otherwise, we feelcomfortable saying the trends we've spotlighted are not onlynational but global in scope.
Entrepreneur:Is the Internet a fad or atrend?
Popcorn: It's a trend. Just look at how it fits withtrends like clanning and cocooning, and you see how big theInternet can be because people are looking for new ways to linktogether.
Trends help you interpret what's going on and whether itwill last. When you look at the Internet in terms of it being atrend, you understand it will definitely continue to grow.
Entrepreneur:Aren't some of the trendscontradictory?
Popcorn: That's human nature. How many people go outand jog for an hour, then go home and eat a pint of ice cream?That's fitness and fatness in the same person. Besides, in anation of 266 million people, a trend can be gigantic but onlyinvolve 20 million people.
Entrepreneur:You say that a good way to cultivatebusiness ideas is to question the obvious. Why is that?
Popcorn: Because the obvious often isn't so obvious.You may see something in front of you, but when you analyze it, yousee it's really something else.
More broadly: What we're trying to do in detailing thetrends is to force you to think differently. Clicking is aboutbreaking clichés, ripping apart refrigeratorphilosophy--comforting words to live by that don't hold trueanymore.
Entrepreneur:A skeptic might challenge your accuracyon these predictions.
Popcorn: I haven't been wrong about a trend yet. AtBrainReserve, we are systematic about how we come up with ourpredictions. We interview as many as 4,000 people a year, one onone, and we've done that for 22 years. We read 300 publicationsa month, plus the bestselling books. We monitor the top-ratedtelevision shows, movies and music. The art of all this is scanningtoday's culture for signs of the future. The signs areeverywhere--you just have to open your eyes.
Entrepreneur:What industries are "clinging toold-think," as you put it--meaning they are out of touch withtoday's trends?
Popcorn: In Clicking, we analyze banking in termsof the current trends, and it is off-trend on all 16 [trends in thebook]. No industry can keep insulting its clients forever without arebellion. There are real opportunities for an on-trend bank of thefuture.
Another industry in trouble is the supermarket. People hate toshop there--they don't have time, and when they go, theycan't find anything. Car dealerships also have tremendousproblems--many customers think that when they go to buy a car, theyjust get abused. Some customers want to be able to get homedelivery of new cars. Wouldn't you like a dealer who firstasked you questions about your needs, then later brought cars toyour home or office for you to test drive? All theseindustries--banking, supermarkets, car sales--offer opportunitiesfor on-trend entrepreneurs who find new and better ways to giveconsumers what they want.
Entrepreneur:What recommendations for marketing areyou most proud of?
Popcorn: We did incredible work for MetLife [insurance],whom we helped identify an underserved women's market thatrepresents a potential $1 billion in business.
We knew that the first financial services company to demonstrateloyalty to women entrepreneurs would be in a position to gainmarket share in a huge and growing market. So for MetLife, wecreated a way to sell insurance to entrepreneurs--especially femaleentrepreneurs--and at the same time provide them with help in theirbusinesses.
We transformed the word "insurance" agent into"success" agent, and that agent, besides sellinginsurance to women, also helps them succeed in business bymentoring them in areas like bookkeeping, hiring employees and thelike. And we found that when a woman entrepreneur is treated thatway--in a friendly, interactive, considerate fashion--she will tellabout 500 people.
Entrepreneur:Have there been suggestions you'vemade to clients that they didn't implement?
Popcorn: Many. My favorite product idea was for amicrochip that could be put in a child's tooth and used totrack him or her. We were working for a company involved inmilitary electronics, and it had the capability to do this. Weworked up a business plan, and it could have been very profitable,but the company was afraid that a maniac would start rippingkids' teeth out and that the company would look bad. They weremore afraid of potential negative PR than they were interested intackling the abduction issue.
Entrepreneur:Which of the 16 trends do you see asespecially powerful right now?
Popcorn: Icon toppling--the idea that anything big andestablished will topple. This means difficulties for big business,government and the medical and legal professions. Alternativedelivery systems will grow. This is a very big trend, and thealternatives--small businesses, alternative medicines--will do verywell also.
Entrepreneur:What's your advice to entrepreneursabout how to use your book?
Popcorn: Put your ideas to the trend test. Using thetrends as a screen can save you from false starts, misguidedattempts or outright failures in whatever venture you have in mind.It's easy to do. If a business fits with at least four trends,being off-trend won't cause it to fail. But when fewer thanfour trends apply, you're picking up on a fad or reaching toosmall a market segment.
How do you know if an idea is on-trend? Write down all thetrends vertically on the left-hand side of a piece of paper. Headother columns horizontally across the top of the page: Yes, No,Maybe, Possible Change. Take each trend in turn, and consider howwell the business idea is supported by that trend. If the ideaseems on-trend, look for ways to make it more so. If not, don'tgive up. Try to figure out what you would have to do to reshape theidea and make it trend-friendly.
Entrepreneur:Another click you talk about is the"heart click." What's that?
Popcorn: Here's a great for-instance: A hospitalnurse noticed that when her patients went home, they oftendidn't have the energy to cook. So she created an after-careservice to deliver hot meals. She did this because she really feltfor these people, and that's what's essential in a heartclick. It's when the idea tugs on your heart more than itinvolves your head and your economic analysis of the business plan.And sometimes heart clicks work very, very well.
Entrepreneur:Does a small business need to jump on atrend in its early stage?
Popcorn: Often there are good reasons not to be first.Nathan Pritikin is a case in point. Thirty years ago, he waspreaching the value of a low-cholesterol, high-carbohydrate diet,and he was mocked. Now much of what he said is taken as fact. Ifyou're first, you will often have a hard time precisely becauseyou are first.
An entrepreneur can come into a trend several years after itstarted and still do very well--if he or she has good ideas andexecutes them inventively. You don't want to get in too late,of course. But waiting until the second or third year of a trendcan be smart. You'll see if it is in fact a trend or merely afad. If you decide it's a trend, then look for creative ways towork within the trend.
Entrepreneur:Can a small business afford to bet on aclicking concept?
Popcorn: Absolutely--we are already getting letters frompeople who have read the book and clicked into businesses. Thereare lots of ways to succeed once you know the trends. Above all,the most important thing I hope to give entrepreneurs is the heartand courage they need to follow their ideas.
Top Picks
In Clicking, futurist Faith Popcorn identifies 16 trends--big,sweeping consumer movements that are driving the marketplace. Whenyou study these driving forces, says Popcorn, you're sure toget plenty of ideas for business opportunities. Here, in noparticular order, are her top trends:
1. Cocooning: People stay at home, building safe harborsthat afford protection against the uncertain--evendangerous--outside world. The "country living" style ofhome furnishings is a case in point of products designed to tapdirectly into the cocooning trend.
2. Clanning: We're staying at home but still want toconnect with other, like-minded souls. How? Internet chat rooms areone way we "clan" but still cocoon.
3. Fantasy adventure: The operative concept is "riskfree," as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe) travel, newfoods and possibly virtual reality.
4. Pleasure revenge: "This is `Screw it, I'mwearing my mink coat,' " says Popcorn--and more broadly,pleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules thatrestrain us and are enjoying forbidden pleasures. "Smoking isanother pleasure revenge," says Popcorn.
5. Small indulgences: Even if we can't afford aPorsche, maybe we can afford a Porsche watch. Stressed-outconsumers are rewarding themselves with countless little,affordable treats--from good cigars to Godiva chocolates.
6. Anchoring: Anchoring is the search for spiritual rootsand meanings.
7. Egonomics: Rebelling against uniformity and sterility,we seek to stamp an "I" wherever we go as a quest forindividuality becomes a major trend.
8. FemaleThink: A big shift away from traditional,goal-oriented models to "the more caring and sharing, familialones," says Popcorn.
9. Mancipation: Popcorn calls it "a NewThink formen," and it means men will break out of strictly businessruts into more individual freedoms.
10. 99 Lives: Today's consumers are busy, busy, busy.Life in the late '90s is just plain hectic, and smartbusinesses find ways to make their customers' lives easier.
11. Cashing out: Employees are jumping out ofconventional careers and into more fulfilling, simpler ways oflife, often in the countryside.
12. Being alive: "Wellness" as a conceptcontinues to mushroom, and healthy living is a dominantphilosophy.
13. Down-aging: Nostalgia for a childhood past:"When we eat Oreos, this is down-aging," saysPopcorn.
14. Vigilante consumers: The business that messes withits customers can expect to pay a price, as consumers organizeboycotts and go on the attack.
15. Icon toppling: If it's big, established andtraditional, it's in trouble as we join in overturning all thepillars of society.
16. SOS: "Save Our Society." A growing sense ofliving on an endangered planet is spawning a new environmentalconsciousness, new ethics and a new compassion.
