Is It Good Public Policy to Prop Up the Stock Market?

Should policymakers prop up the stock market when it appears to be in danger of crashing down? Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This comes up in regard...

Assurance That Stock Prices Will Go Back Up Again Don’t Count for Much After a Crash

I am worried about what will happen in the days following the next price crash. Today’s CAPE value is 36. The mean CAPE value is 16. So a drop to fair value price levels would mean a price drop of more than 50 percent. At the end of earlier bull/bear cycles, the CAPE fell to […]

Is Shiller Losing Confidence in His Own Research?

I believe that Robert Shiller is gradually losing confidence in his own research. He still has confidence in the findings. The findings are rock-solid and there is no reason to doubt them. But what really matters are the how-to implications of the research — what should investors be doing differently because of Shiller’s finding that […]

I Like Cash Because I Like Stocks

Cash is at one side of the risk/reward spectrum of investment possibilities. Stocks are at the other end of the spectrum. Stocks are risky but offer great returns. Cash is safe but offers poor returns. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Right? Stocks vs Cash: Returns And Risks I don’t think that’s quite […]

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