Rising Memory Chip Prices & What It Means The memory market dynamics has entered a 'Hyper-Bull' phase, with current conditions eclipsing the historic 2018 peak.
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Globally, supplier leverage is at an all-time high, driven by an insatiable demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and server capacity. Memory prices are expected to surge 40-50per cent in Q4 2025 and further increases of 40-50 per cent are expected in Q1 2026 and around 20 per cent in Q2 2026, according to Counterpoint Research.
The memory market dynamics has entered a 'Hyper-Bull' phase, with current conditions eclipsing the historic 2018 peak. A hyper-bull market refers to a market condition where prices are rising at an exceptionally aggressive and rapid pace, even faster than the strong growth seen in a typical bull market. It signifies a period of extreme investor optimism and demand that can push asset valuations up very steeply in a short amount of time.
The 64GB RDIMM prices, which jumped from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025, are targeted to reach $700 by March 2026. "It would not be surprising if prices climbed to $1,000 this year, reaching $1.95 per GB, which is almost double its 2018 high of $1.00 per GB," added the report.
DRAM production is projected to grow 24 per cent YoY in 2026. Although capex is also rising, it will take time to meet demand and this won't fully normalize by 2027. "Micron Technology SK Hynix, Samsung Semiconductor will have a tough time as they will not be able to satisfy their customers' order demand and fairly allocate the limited capacity," said Neil Shah, co-founder, Counterpoint Research.
Smart Devices: Smartphones, PCs, wearables will be affected. Memory chips are about to grow from 10 per cent of a smartphone BoM to 13-15 per cent and 20 per cent (adding Flash).
"This will either force smartphone players to raise prices or be creative with BoM de-spec some other components. Displays, cameras are the first to be affected. With LP4 capacity highly constrained due to EoL as suppliers pivot production to high-margin solutions for AI servers, the sub-$200 smartphone market will feel the most heat and shrink. This might drive temporary demand fill from secondary market devices," Shah added.
Read more: Not Only Smartphones & PCs; Memory Chip Shortage To Hit India's AI, Datacenter Push
Recently, on the back of AI demand acceleration, Micron Technologies delivered record results in fiscal Q1, with revenue of $13.6 billion, up 57 per cent year-over-year (YoY) and 21 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Gross margin was up 56.8 per cent. The company' s revenue stood at $11.32 billion for the prior quarter and $8.71 billion for the same period last year.
Memory chips have been in short supply in recent months as the AI infrastructure boom consumes massive amounts of solid-state storage chips and memory chips. Solid storage chips (like SSDs using NAND flash) provide long-term, non-volatile storage for files, OS, and apps, retaining data without power, while traditional memory chips (RAM) offer ultra-fast, temporary, volatile storage for actively running programs, losing data when power is off, making RAM much faster but smaller and more expensive than storage. Solid storage (SSDs) uses flash memory, which are integrated circuits but slower than RAM, whereas RAM (DRAM) is optimized for speed, acting as the computer's short-term workspace.
The memory market is dominated by three players, and they have prioritized HBM over legacy DRAM owing to high demand and high margin from large data centers & AI Players. Skyrocketing demand from AI infrastructure and consumer electronics is overwhelming global supply.
