Future Shift

Change, not growth, will be the story when it comes to Empire State consumers. New York's population is expected to grow only about half a percentage point, to about 18.2 million people, in the first five years of the new century. Emigration is the reason, as more people leave than arrive, while natural increase will only barely maintain the state's overall population.

But behind the stagnant population numbers is a vibrant swirl of change. Like the rest of the nation, New York is seeing growth in the number of middle-aged consumers, notes Warren Brown, senior research associate at the Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research at Cornell University in Ithaca, but the rates for older teens and those in their early 20s are also rapidly growing.

New York is also seeing the same natural increases in Latino and Asian American populations as other states. What makes New York stand out is that, counterbalancing the residents leaving for other states, large numbers of people are immigrating to the state from foreign countries. "Historically, that's been New York's role," notes Brown, "to serve as a port of entry and then spread people to the other parts of the country."

The product of these disparate forces is compelling opportunity. "Merge those two together, and you get a picture that says minorities--Latino, Asian and black--and older teens are very rapidly growing markets," says Brown. "Marketers who figure out how to [make their goods] the products of choice for these populations should see tremendous growth."

For entrepreneur Stephen Viscusi, host of a radio show on careers and president of The Viscusi Group Inc., a New York City search firm that specializes in furniture salespeople, it's not so much a change in age as a change in attitude that he expects will affect the customers in his market. When he looks to the future, the biggest difference he sees is an extension in people's working lives.

"People are not retiring," says the 35-year-old Viscusi. "The word `retirement' seems to be disappearing from people's vocabulary, at least the way our parents or grandparents understood it."

Viscusi says a combination of poor financial preparation and concern about losing the fulfillment of work are driving the trend toward postponing retirement. In any case, it's good news for him, as it means an enduring supply of both workers and listeners as the new century progresses. "To me," he says, "it's a very significant trend."

This article was originally published in the September 1999 print edition of Entrepreneur with the headline: Future Shift.