Future Shift

In the heartland of America, events tend to unfold at a slower speed than on the coasts, and that seems especially true for population growth. By 2005, Illinois will have only 2 percent more residents than in 2000, with a population just under 12.4 million. And while diversity will also be a theme in the Prairie State, it won't be anywhere near the minority-majority scenario seen in some others.

Illinois will get its growth from a mix of international migration and natural increase, according to Roy C. Treadway, a demographer at Illinois State University in Normal. When it comes to domestic migration, more people will leave Illinois for other states than will move there, Treadway says.

International migration is adding to Illinois' populations of Asian and Latino residents, while the African American population holds steady in the state. The bulk of the growth of all ethnic groups will occur in and around Chicago, especially in the counties on the edge of its metropolis. In contrast, natural increase won't make up for natural loss in many rural counties, which will actually shrink in population. In these downstate areas--such as Peoria--the population will increasingly be made up of older residents of European ancestry, in sharp contrast to the diversity in Chicago.

So businesses in Illinois face two worlds, Treadway says. If they're in Chicago, they'll see a fast-changing scenario with growth and quick shifts in age and ethnicity. Elsewhere, it's a slow-growth or no-growth future that's becoming increasingly homogeneous.

Older consumers aren't bad news for Michael Stopka, the 38-year-old president and owner of Design Toscano Inc., a catalog-based retailer of historical European reproductions in Arlington Heights. "As the baby boomers get older, they're starting to travel more," he reasons. "They're going to Europe and they're starting to decorate their homes more like Europeans do."

To Stopka, that means selling more of his company's fountains, statues and garden ornaments to affluent and sophisticated baby boomers. It's already happening, and it's a trend he doesn't see stopping. "We've sold 40 suits of armor," reports Stopka, whose company employs 85 people. "And we've sold 17 English phone booths at $7,000 a shot."

Stopka also sees opportunities in marketing to gay and newly spiritual consumers, as well as aging baby boomers turning away from, say, rock-climbing to gardening. He's not sure, though, how he'll reach out to growing ethnic groups and some other prized consumers of the new millennium.

But for Stopka and other entrepreneurs, no matter where they're located, the key seems to be to continue selling to the baby boomers, who helped their businesses succeed in the late 20th century. This, Stopka is confident, will be enough to provide him with plenty of business well into the new millennium. "All [industries]," he says, "are driven by that population bulge."

Contact Sources

Center for Continuing Study of the California, (650) 321-8550, slevy@ccsce.com

Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research,wab4@cornell.edu, http://www.ciser.cornell.edu

Design Toscano, 17 E. Campbell, Arlington Heights, IL 60005, http://www.designtoscano.com

Foghorn Press Inc., fax: (707) 521-3361, foghorn@well.com

Penny's Pastries, (512) 302-3663, pennysforu@aol.com

Physical Addictions, (800) 848-2599, http://www.vital99.com

Texas A&M University Texas State Data Center, (409) 845-5115, http://txsdc.tamu.edu

The Viscusi Group Inc.,http://www.viscusigroup.com

University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research, (352) 392-0171, Junen@ufl.edu

University of Illinois Census and Data User Services, (309) 438-5946, cadus@illstu.edu

This article was originally published in the September 1999 print edition of Entrepreneur with the headline: Future Shift.