This was a watershed year for the handheld computing business.
Not only did a sales slump continue, but pioneer and longtime
sector leader Palm saw its edge against Microsoft begin to
seriously slip away. For the first time, the dollar value of
handhelds running Microsoft's Windows CE operating system has
exceeded Palm OS-powered device sales.
Palm OS-based systems still represent 49 percent of units
shipped worldwide. But a large number of those are low-end consumer
models like the Zire. Meanwhile, Windows-based PDAs dominated the
category of powerful-and costly-business-oriented devices with
features like built-in wireless networking and the ability to
operate as full-featured cell phones.
As yet, however, the success of pricey PDA/cell phones using the
new Windows Smartphone operating system is not assured.
"We're seeing a lot of people rolling things out,"
says King. "Not a whole lot of people are buying $500 and $600
phones."
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Palm's newest Tungsten T3 could suffer the same fate.
It's aimed squarely at mobile entrepreneurs, with features such
as a dazzling high-resolution screen, but requires you to have a
compatible cell phone equipped for Bluetooth short-range wireless
networking to get wireless Internet and e-mail access. At $429,
it's about twice as expensive as the new Palm Tungsten E
($199), which has a lower-resolution screen and dispenses with
Bluetooth connectivity.
Toshiba's latest Windows-based PDAs are pricey and
sophisticated but don't try to be cell phones as well. The $449
Pocket PC e750/e755 series has a 400MHz processor and a spacious
96MB of memory as well as built-in Wi-Fi and Microsoft's latest
handheld operating system, Windows Mobile, with enhanced wireless
networking features. The $249 to $299 Pocket PC
e350/e355 series skips Wi-Fi and has a 300MHz chip, 64MB of
memory, and the older Microsoft Pocket PC software.
Dell entered the PDA market last year with a splash and recently
introduced its second handheld. The Axim X3 is a Windows
Mobile-based, 400MHz, 64MB model with built-in Wi-Fi networking
that's slimmer and lighter than the original Axim X5 and priced
at $349.
Mobile Wireless Networks
All the memory and processing power in the world won't do a
mobile entrepreneur much good unless he or she is connected to
other sources of business information while on the go. For most of
them, that means being able to hook into the computer system back
at the office.
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"For an entrepreneur, there is only one killer app,"
says Charles Golvin, a senior analyst with Forrester Research
Inc. in San Francisco. "That's getting back to your
corporate network." Only by connecting to their company's
computers can mobile entrepreneurs get sales figures, check
customer orders, collaborate on presentations with colleagues, and
perform other jobs that are essential.
For entrepreneurs to be able to reliably, conveniently and
speedily connect to their corporate data from anywhere, mobile
wireless networks are the answer. With the spread of higher-speed
wide-area networks built by cellular phone companies and localized
Wi-Fi hot spots, those networks are beginning to take shape. After
all, Wi-Fi hot spots-found in public places like Starbucks and
airport lounges, where you can get high-speed wireless connections
to the Internet-grew from fewer than 15,000 nationwide locations
last year to more than 70,000 this year, says Gartner. And
according to leading hot-spot provider Wayport Inc. of Austin,
Texas, the number of people using its public Wi-Fi installations is
growing at a similarly explosive 20 percent per month.
"Realistically, we're starting to be able to use
wireless connectivity," says King. Packet data adjuncts to
digital cell phone networks, going by acronyms such as GPRS and
CDMA 1XRTT, offer effective data transmission speeds of 40 to
60Kbps for laptop- and PDA-toting mobile workers.
That's fast enough for e-mail-even with attachments. And
packet data networks are pervasive enough in major metropolitan
areas and along America's major highways that entrepreneurs are
reasonably assured of being able to hook into a wireless network
wherever they may roam.
Packet data use is pricey but continues to tumble along with the
rest of the cost of mobile information technology. Today, you can
get unlimited use of a network such as Verizon Wireless'
Express Network wireless Internet plan for $80 per month in some
service areas. Analysts say flat-rate pricing may be the lever that
springs loose heavy wireless Internet demand for many business
users.
Even the best-case data transmission speeds of 144Kbps by
wireless Internet services such as Verizon's are still just a
fraction of the throughput delivered by land-line connections such
as cable, DSL and T1. For heavier lifting-Internet browsing,
running mobile applications and transmitting large file
attachments-mobile entrepreneurs should turn to Wi-Fi hot spots.
Public Wi-Fi network sites offer more reliable transmission rates
50 to 100 times the speed of wireless packet data networks.
Public hot spots are limited to airport lounges and hotels,
coffee shops and restaurants for the most part, with active zones
up to 300 feet from the transceivers. But the current 70,000 or so
Wi-Fi hot spots are expected to double in 2004 and keep growing
from there, suggesting that Wi-Fi public access will be, if not
ubiquitous, at least widely available in urban locales. T-Mobile
alone, which partnered with Starbucks and Borders to put hot spots
in coffeehouses and bookstores, has nearly 2,800 sites in 33
states, from Hawaii to Maine.
Mobile businesspeople are embracing existing hot spots at
impressive rates. "We have over 200,000 people using our
service," says Dan Lowden, vice president of marketing for
Wayport, which operates approximately 700 hot spots. "And
it's growing on average about 20 percent a month."
Pricing remains an issue for hot-spot users. Many hotels charge
$10 each time a user connects to the Internet via a wireless hot
spot. Airports charge about $7. Fees for a subscription that lets
you roam among a network like Wayport's can range from $30 to
$50 per month. Until prices slide, many cost-conscious
entrepreneurs are likely to limit connections to those occasions
when they have urgent and important information needs. Naturally,
when it's a matter of closing a sale or not, those rates are
not serious obstacles, notes Golvin. "This equation can work
for a lot of people," he says.
Another obstacle is usability. The field of mobile data access
is populated by many vendors and standards. When it works, it can
work well. When problems arise in using or configuring mobile
networking, untangling them can be difficult. "One thing you
still don't have is real simplicity and ease of use," says
Golvin. "We're not at the point where your average Joe can
make things work out of the box."
For that reason, in addition to pricing, customer service is
seen as key to not only boosting the use of mobile networking, but
also to deciding which of the many providers will survive and
prosper. About 20,000 people call Wayport's help desk each
month. "It's very easy if you're set up right from the
get-go," says Lowden. "But about 10 percent of the people
who connect to our service have to call in."

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