Assistant to Go
There's been a lot written about the certain demise of PDAs,
speculation fueled by Sony's decision to forego any additional
launches of its innovative Clié model. But the category
actually began to turn around in 2004, with some projections
calling for modest growth of about 2 percent after more than two
years of declines. Ironically, although Sony shipped enough units
earlier this year to become the third-largest provider in the U.S.
market, it is focusing future R&D efforts instead on its joint
smartphone venture with Ericsson.
"Although I believe that the smartphone will become the
dominant handheld, there will always be a market for nonconnected
PDAs," says Gerry Purdy, principal analyst with Cupertino,
California-based MobileTrax, which advises clients on mobile and
wireless computing. "It's just that the PDA will be
relegated to the shelf next to the low-cost calculator in the
supermarket."
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Kort estimates that roughly 11.9 million PDAs will ship by the
end of 2004, with units based on Palm operating systems accounting
for about half that number. The BlackBerry device from Research in
Motion is becoming a contender for the No. 2 spot, with estimated
shipments of 2.2 million units in 2004, about triple what it
shipped the previous year. But Hewlett-Packard has been posting the
strongest increases among the top five handheld vendors. Analysts
have said Dell hasn't made as many waves as expected; however,
its new Axim x30, priced at $249 and with integrated support for
Wi-Fi, is seen as a step forward in innovation for the vendor.
Features that have become basic checklist items for PDAs include
color screens, preferably with transflective qualities that make
them easier to use in outdoor lighting, and faster chips that let
users easily access more than one application at once. GPS is also
available for PalmOne and Pocket PC devices. What all this enables
is the other big trend that will shape the PDA market:
specialization. Says Burden, "People want a device that is
appropriate for the task, not excessive for the task."
Take Note
If wireless was the word for notebooks for 2004, then ruggedness
is an emerging theme for 2005. As the category matures-by some
estimates, mobile PCs will account for 1 in 3 of all PCs sold by
2006-design innovation has moved inside the box. Buyers can expect
15-inch screens to become fairly standard in coming months, and the
pricing threshold will continue to hover around $1,300 for
entry-level products, although fully loaded models can easily cost
double that. The decision by some larger notebook makers to use
chips from AMD instead of Intel for some models should keep prices
in check. AMD delivered a series of mobile processors in July,
including a speedy 64-bit edition being incorporated into notebooks
from Alienware and Epson America, not to mention the C3500
ultraportable convertible tablet/notebook models from Averatec,
priced starting at $1,300. The AMD processors have been optimized
for extended battery life and are compatible with many widely used
wireless technologies.
"There isn't much difference between mainstream
notebooks," says Ranjit Atwal, senior analyst with Gartner in
London. "The innovation is further down into the PC rather
than in terms of features missing."
IBM, for example, has introduced a feature that senses if the
notebook is being moved and locks down the hard drive, thus
reducing the chance of failures. If you do have a problem on the
road, IBM introduced a feature this year called Rescue and Recovery
that's embedded into some of its ThinkPad models, including the
ThinkPad X40, its 2.7-pound ultraportable. The service lets you
restore your system quickly if you are hit by a virus or encounter
corrupted software drivers.
It used to be that you had to skimp on weight and functionality
if you wanted a rugged notebook-and pay about a 20 percent markup
over mainstream prices. But Panasonic's Toughbook W2, for
example, is a 2.8-pound ultraportable outfitted with all the latest
technologies, such as the Intel Centrino wireless architecture
supporting 802.11b+g, a DVD-ROM/CD-RW drive, a shock-mounted hard
drive that can be removed to protect sensitive information,
rubber-gasket-sealed ports to keep foreign matter out of the
notebook's innards, and a 12.1-inch active-matrix display.
"It all comes back to usage," Atwal says. "We
can't generalize usage of the notebook; there will be vendors
who will specialize in particular niches of the market."
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