Get All Access for $5/mo

Indian Economy: COVID-19 And Beyond At this juncture, we must do away with fear and focus on recovery and resilience.

By Sunny Nandwani

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

You're reading Entrepreneur India, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media.

Obi Onyeador on Unsplash

Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the global economy was struggling against trade-protectionism, US-China trade wars, European uncertainties over Brexit and falling commodity and energy prices. The world wakes up to alarming data every day, with the infection count at 4.28 million, 292,000 lives claimed and a global recession unleashed as of writing this article. Though the number of new confirmed cases is starting to level on a global basis, the real picture is fragmented as different countries are in very different stages of the pandemic.

The statistics emerging from the situation are not heartening. During the lockdown, 140 million Indians have lost their jobs. As per a Barclays research estimate from April 14, the lockdown cost Indian economy $26 billion per week. The same agency on March 24 had estimated that the lockdown would cost India $16.6 billion per week. The discrepancy goes to show that predictions are not an exact science given the dynamic nature of the situation and it would be better to err on the side of caution. Averaging all estimates, GDP growth for 2020 is likely to go down to a negative 0.5 per cent, the worst since economic liberalization in 1991. Acuite Ratings evaluated the total economic impact of the first 21-day lockdown at INR 7-8 lakh crores. Indian e-commerce sector suffered losses amounting to INR 3,016 Crore a week, with sales of everything except essentials banned and initial confusion over what essentials comprise of.

The crisis is pressuring governments worldwide to roll-out swift monetary and fiscal policies to support credit markets and sustain the economy. In one among the largest packages by countries, the Indian government has just announced a INR 20 lakh crore fiscal stimulus package, almost 10 per cent of national GDP. The figure includes the already in-circulation INR 1.7 lakh crore economic stimulus covering direct cash-transfers and free rations for the needy. Another large part of the package, INR 8.04 lakh is added liquidity into India's economy by RBI. Collateral free loans for small businesses, changes in MSME stature criteria, relaxed tax-filling days, tax reductions for self-employed, loan moratoriums, government purchase of low quality debt bonds from NFBCs and contributions towards employee pension schemes are largely the parts of the stimulus announced so far. Overall, the Indian government seems to have designed the package for grassroots impact and liquidity without burdening fiscal reserves.

This is a welcome move, rekindling hopes that cash will be back in circulation, reviving consumer spending and embarking on the road to recovery. The Indian government is also taking this opportunity to take a philosophical stand in encouraging self-reliance and thrusting hard for "Make in India' and "Digital India'. Given the interconnected and highly complex nature of global supply-chains, the crisis that started at the source in China, world's manufacturing hub, had repercussions on the entire network – disrupting both upstream and downstream production processes and compromising fulfilment around the world. The result has been escalating trade-tensions and a universal call for localization of supply-chains, especially those of essential needs. COVID has exposed vulnerabilities and risks in global supply chains that must be urgently reformed o tackle future black-swan events better.

Experts say that the virus is here to stay, and total normalcy cannot be expected to return anytime soon till we have a cure or a vaccine. What this really tells us, is that normal is whatever reality is, not what we are comfortable with. At this juncture, we must do away with fear and focus on recovery and resilience. The need of the hour is to focus on:

  • bringing back demand
  • recovering revenue
  • rebuilding robustly, digitally
  • laying out shock-proof supply chains
  • staying innovative and future-focused

As we wait to see what lockdown 4.0 has in store, we should not sit hoping for "back to normal' but buckle up for extra-ordinary effort and aim at emerging stronger than ever before.

Sunny Nandwani

Founder and Managing Partner, Acuver Consulting

Sunny Nandwani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Acuver Consulting. Here he has been instrumental in conceptualizing and scaling Acuver to a 100 strong company today along with his two co founders. His strong domain knowledge supported by his business acumen aided him to scale the company from the ground up. He plays the role of the CEO at Acuver and is responsible for its overall operations and growth. 

Sunny is a true advocate of creating “Compelling Customer Experiences”. As a founding member, he takes charge in spearheading the vision of the company and providing his partners and customers with a seamless experience with Acuver.

Business News

Apple Is Adding ChatGPT to iPhones This Week. Here's How It Works.

ChatGPT will take over questions that Siri can't answer.

Growing a Business

5 Effective Strategies to Boost Your Business's Online Presence

Boosting your online presence in 2025 is the key to success for businesses looking to grow. Working on your branding and reputation management is important to drive more sales and improve conversion.

Marketing

He Pitched His First Business at 12 and Sold a Company for 8 Figures When He Was 23. Here's This Gen Z Marketing Expert's Next Big Move.

Griffin Haddrill built a marketing empire working with artists like Justin Bieber and Lil Nas X. Learn how he tapped into Gen Z's digital culture and turned viral campaigns into a business model.

Growing a Business

How to Spot Trends and Anticipate Market Shifts Before Your Competition

Discover how to identify disruptive trends before your competitors by mastering the art of anticipating market shifts. Learn strategies for staying ahead and gaining a competitive edge in business.

Business News

Macy's CEO Confirms Employee Made Accounting Errors Worth $151 Million, Though Not for 'Personal Gain'

The company announced its third-quarter earnings Wednesday after a delay.

Personal Finance

This Candlestick Trading Masterclass Can Help You Unlock Passive Income for Your Business

Learn what it takes to make smart investments in the stock market.