Predictions from the Front Lines How war, space, and supply chains will redefine tech

The next phase of technological innovation will not be defined by consumer convenience or speculative growth. It will be shaped by war, geopolitics, supply chains and sovereignty - and by a growing recognition that technological advantage has become inseparable from national security. Across defence, space, energy and investment, leaders are already mapping what comes next, and their predictions point to a world where control, resilience and speed matter more than ever.

For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. The country's defence tech ecosystem has been forged under the most extreme conditions, but whether that hard-won expertise translates into long-term economic and industrial power is far from guaranteed. According to Andriy Dovbenko, Principal and founder of UK-Ukraine TechExchange, the year ahead will be decisive:

"Whether we see a favourable peace deal agreed or not, next year will be pivotal for Ukraine and its defence tech sector. The new threats of modern warfare have made Ukrainian startups leading innovators and experts in DefenceTech, but without IP sovereignty, the country risks becoming a laboratory for others. If Ukraine's allies intend to benefit from its hard-won defence tech expertise, then we need to see deliberate moves towards appropriate frameworks and commercial pathways that enable Ukraine to shift from an exporter of ideas to an established global defence industry leader. Procurement agreements must include IP retention clauses; joint venture models must guarantee that firms retain equity; and investment in domestic patent infrastructure will ensure Ukraine benefits from the very defence boom it started. These economic benefits will be indispensable for the nation's post-war recovery."

That warning reflects a broader prediction: that innovation without ownership will no longer be enough. As modern warfare evolves, so too do the technologies underpinning it - and the systems that connect them. Dovbenko expects anti-drone defence to become an even greater focus, but only as part of a wider, integrated approach:

"Following drone incursions across Eastern Europe, talk of a 'drone wall' persists as new threats rear their heads, and I expect there will be even more focus on anti-drone technologies next year. But an effective drone wall must be an integrated system that combines every available tool, with electronic warfare (EW) as its backbone. Kvertus is a company to watch - one of the leading Ukrainian EW companies which has helped to save over 100,000 lives since the full-scale Russian invasion. Beyond this, war gaming simulations will become increasingly commonplace in military training, powered by advanced AI technologies. Companies like L7 Simulators have developed systems that train soldiers not just to react quickly but also to think tactically, work as a team, operate complex weapons, and adapt to unpredictable threats."

The same predictive thread - that AI and advanced manufacturing will redefine capability - runs well beyond the battlefield. In the space sector, the next wave of companies is expected to scale not through brute force, but through intelligent design and production. Volodymyr Levykin, CEO and founder of Skyrora, sees a transformation already underway:

"In 2026, we will see a wave of next-generation space companies using AI-driven engineering to scale faster and unlock far greater capability from their teams. At Skyrora, our ambition is to lead this shift in industrial manufacturing - bringing together world-class university expertise with advances in materials science and modern manufacturing. This will allow Scotland to harness these technologies alongside its deep engineering heritage, creating something genuinely distinctive for the global space sector and adjacent industries such as defence."

Back on Earth, materials and energy systems are emerging as another critical fault line. What once sat primarily within the environmental agenda is now firmly embedded in strategic planning. Mike Smeed, Managing Director at InMotion Ventures, predicts continued and intensified focus on the foundations of industrial resilience:

"Battery tech, specifically circular supply chains & critical materials, attracted attention in 2025 and will continue to do so next year. Rare earth elements, battery materials, and supply chain resilience technologies are no longer just environmental plays, they're national security imperatives. With China's export restrictions on gallium and germanium, and broader onshoring pressures, circular economy solutions will receive investment from corporates across multiple industries."

These shifts are also reshaping how capital flows - and who gets access to it. As the venture market tightens, prediction gives way to selection: fewer investors, fewer deals, and a sharper emphasis on strategic value. Smeed argues that this new environment will favour scale and specialisation over generalist risk-taking:

"Corporate funds will have the chance to compete for the very best deals. The venture market is changing. LPs are exercising caution, and in many cases deprioritising venture as an asset class. Liquidity events are still hard to come by, particularly in Europe. And founders are being incredibly selective about where their capital comes from, rightly prioritising investors with deep pockets, unrivalled sector knowledge and a tangible "value-add". Against this backdrop, I expect two types of investors to endure: multi-stage mega funds and sector-specific VCs who have a clear right to win in their chosen verticals. Fortunately, corporate investors sit comfortably in the latter category."

Taken together, these predictions describe a future defined less by hype cycles and more by hard constraints: sovereignty over ideas, control of materials, resilience of supply chains, and the strategic alignment of capital. Whether in defence, space or energy, the message is consistent. The technologies that matter most in the years ahead will be those that nations - and companies - can truly call their own.

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