Get All Access for $5/mo

Jamie Dimon Says a Mild Recession Is Still on the Table: 'There's a Lot of Uncertainty Out There' Economists at JPMorgan Chase raised their odds of a recession in 2024 to 35% on Wednesday.

By Emily Rella Edited by Melissa Malamut

Key Takeaways

  • In an analyst note on Wednesday, economists at JPMorgan Chase raised their odds of a recession in 2024 to 35% based on a number of economic indicators.
  • CEO Jamie Dimon echoed these sentiments in an interview with CNBC, pointing to market volatility and inflation concerns.

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

As the U.S. economy continues to remain volatile, JPMorgan Chase is warning that a recession is not off the table.

In an analyst note published Wednesday, economists at JPMorgan raised the odds of a recession this year from 25% to 35%, noting there's also a 45% chance of a recession in the second half of 2025.

Related: Stock Market Tumbles After Global Selloff as Investors Panic Over Jobs Report, Economic Indicators

"U.S. wage inflation is now slowing in a manner not seen in other DM [developed market] economies," the note said. "Easing labor market conditions increase confidence both that service price inflation will move lower and that the Fed's current policy stance is restrictive."

The note also said the bank believes the odds of the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September and November 2024.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doubled down on the prediction in an interview with CNBC, saying he thinks a recession could be looming.

Related: Jamie Dimon's Policy Advice for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris

"There's a lot of uncertainty out there. I've always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets," he said. "I'm fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay."

The bank's predictions came after last week's jobs report where the unemployment rate reached 4.1% in June.

It's been a volatile week for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq due to heightened concerns about the U.S. economy.

Emily Rella

Senior News Writer

Emily Rella is a Senior News Writer at Entrepreneur.com. Previously, she was an editor at Verizon Media. Her coverage spans features, business, lifestyle, tech, entertainment, and lifestyle. She is a 2015 graduate of Boston College and a Ridgefield, CT native. Find her on Twitter at @EmilyKRella.

Want to be an Entrepreneur Leadership Network contributor? Apply now to join.

Editor's Pick

Productivity

6 Habits That Help Successful People Maximize Their Time

There aren't enough hours in the day, but these tips will make them feel slightly more productive.

Business News

These Companies Offer the Best Work-Life Balance, According to Employees

The ranking is based on Glassdoor ratings and reviews.

Business Ideas

63 Small Business Ideas to Start in 2024

We put together a list of the best, most profitable small business ideas for entrepreneurs to pursue in 2024.

Business News

Here's What the CPI Report Means for Your Wallet, According to JPMorgan and EY Experts

Most experts agree that there will be another rate cut next week.

Leadership

Why Your AI Strategy Will Fail Without the Right Talent in Place

Using fractional AI experts through specialized platforms allows companies to access top talent cost-effectively, drive innovation and scale agile strategies for growth.