As a VC, I Can Predict a Startup’s Success in Minutes — And It Comes Down to 3 Traits (Not the Deck)

I’ve spent my career operating in chaos. Whether it was rebuilding the LA Clippers’ technology backbone from scratch, steering billion-dollar M&A deals or introducing AI platforms into human-driven industries like sports and entertainment, I’ve learned to spot patterns in the noise. The temptation is to think the answer is in the slides or briefs in front of you. Maybe they gave you a peek into the future, but rarely.

As a VC, I sit across from founders every day. Some are brilliant, some are not yet self-aware, and I can usually tell within an hour if their company has a shot. I don’t need their pitch deck. In fact, I prefer they leave it out entirely. The truth about a business lives in how the founder thinks, not in what they’ve packaged for investors.

What I’m listening for is a three-part signal. I call it clarity, context and chemistry. It’s how I make high-conviction decisions fast — and it all starts with how they talk.

Clarity: Can you cut through the fog?

A founder’s ability to describe their business without jargon is a massive tell. When I ask what problem they’re solving, I don’t want a TED Talk. I want an honest, grounded, simple answer. If they start by saying they’re leveraging machine learning to revolutionize human capital management, I already know they’re compensating.

Real clarity shows up when they explain their product like they would to someone with zero context — a family member, a kid. If they can do that without diluting the nuance, I lean in.

This isn’t about dumbing things down. It’s about knowing the real spine of your company. The cause. The pain point. The tension in the market only you noticed. And the reason your team is the one to solve it. If that doesn’t come through in your words, I don’t care how clean your deck looks.

Context: Do you know where you’re standing?

Startups exist within systems — economic, cultural, technical and operational. Founders who speak only about their idea in isolation haven’t done the work. I want to know if they understand the world they’re stepping into: competitors, constraints, customer behavior, power dynamics and technical debt.

To get there, I use something I developed over years of solving high-pressure problems: binary troubleshooting. I don’t guess or inch toward answers. I test the extremes. I ask what breaks if the company grows tenfold overnight. I push on the assumption holding up the business model. I probe the one thing they hope I won’t ask.

Good founders welcome that pressure. They clarify. They sharpen. They flip the whiteboard and show me what I missed. Those moments are worth more than any slide.

Chemistry: Can you build in the middle of a hurricane?

Everything breaks — plans, people, servers, sentiment. I ask myself a simple question when I meet a founder: when things go sideways, and they will, is this someone I want next to me in the room?

Chemistry is rarely about charisma. True chemistry is reciprocal. It’s about psychological posture. Are they curious under pressure? Do they ask real questions in return? Can they take a hit to the ego without losing the thread? I call it storm chemistry. It tells me whether a founder can lead a team, weather a pivot, and keep talent on board when the vision is still forming.

I once passed on a well-funded startup because the founder flinched every time I challenged an assumption. On the flip side, I bet on an idea that barely existed because the founder had range, grit, and a calm I knew would scale.

Why you don’t need the deck

The deck is performance. The founder is signal. I don’t care what they practiced in front of the mirror. I want to see how they react when the narrative goes sideways. I want to hear how they think when they’re not selling.

At Skafld Studio, we’re using machine learning to replicate this intuitive pattern recognition at scale. Even with the best algorithms, you still need a human who knows what to listen for.

This framework — clarity, context, chemistry — is fast but not shallow. It’s the result of years of navigating high-stakes environments where slow decisions had real costs. I built it because I needed a way to make accurate calls in the storm. Now I use it to find the people who can build in the storm, too.

I’m not betting on polish. I’m betting on the pattern behind the person.