Future Speak Think demassification. Figure out how to deliver. In the future that prognosticators Alvin and Heidi Toffler foresee, a whole lot of entrepreneurial opportunities await.

In ancient times, prophets foretold the future. In modern times,management gurus predict trends--in business, that is. But fewforecasters have had the influence of husband-and-wife futuristsAlvin and Heidi Toffler.

In 1970, the pair sent shock waves around the world with theirprophetic international megaseller Future Shock (RandomHouse). It foresaw an increasingly consumerist society worldwide inwhich everything would be disposable, leading to difficult culturalchanges including the disintegration of family relationships andthe erosion of faith in government and big business, while themasses would be empowered by personal computers. The Tofflersforecasted the end of the hegemony of the three television networksby what was then termed the EVR [electronic video recorder] (nowVCR) and cable TV--indeed, Ted Turner credited the Tofflers withgiving him the idea for CNN. The duo predicted everything fromcommercial cloning and the dissolution of the Soviet Union to thebreakup of AT&T and the trend toward working from home.

The Tofflers followed their first book with bestsellers TheThird Wave (William Morrow) and PowerShift (BantamBooks), and participated in studies on everything from education towar. They've been invited to confer with world leaders, fromPresidents Reagan and Bush to Mikhail Gorbachev, Indira Gandhi andChina's reform party leader, Zhao Ziyang. In 1995, then HouseSpeaker Newt Gingrich put their latest book, Creating a NewCivilization (Turner Publishing), on the required-reading listfor fellow representatives, along with the Declaration ofIndependence and The Federalist papers.

Although the Tofflers say projecting the future can't bebased simply on current trends and that any number of chanceelements make a variety of futures possible, for three decades theworld has listened to their predictions. We asked them to peer intotheir crystal ball and give us a reading on the first few decadesof the new millennium.

Entrepreneur:What are the fundamental differencesbetween a Second Wave society, which we're in now, and a ThirdWave society, which you say we're moving toward?

Alvin Toffler: The Second Wave society is industrial andbased on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, masseducation, mass media, mass recreation and entertainment, andweapons of mass destruction. You combine those things withstandardization, centralization, concentration and synchronization,and you wind up with a style of organization we callbureaucracy.

In the Third Wave civilization we're moving toward, theprimary factor of production is knowledge. We're customizingnot only products but also services, markets and the media. Theentire system becomes more diversified, complex andfast-changing.

Heidi Toffler: The industrial model is based on economiesof scale: The more units that are produced, the cheaper they cost.With CAD/CAM [computer aided design/computer aided manufacturing],it became possible to produce one-of-a-kind variations at almostzero extra cost. In a way, we're returning to the First Wave,when artisans produced items one at a time, but now we can do itwith high tech. Now you can go on the Internet and feed in yourmeasurements and have clothing made just for you. Labor, land andcapital are being replaced by information as the basis of theeconomy.

Entrepreneur:What is the mindset business owners needto have to succeed during the transition?

Heidi: Expect the unexpected, and look for constantchange.

Alvin: Demassification is the best friend ofentrepreneurs today. Consultants and writers who tell entrepreneurswhat the trends are going to be generally do so by extrapolatingfrom what has already happened. But we're living in arevolutionary moment, so trends are often upset. They discontinue,explode or even reverse themselves. Trend projection is the weakestway to find out what could happen. It doesn't tell you aboutcountertrends or why things are happening. We use sophisticatedmodels of social change that [evaluate] the interaction ofpolitical, social environmental and other factors withbusiness--factors most economists and even many entrepreneursignore.

Entrepreneur:What industries will flourish during thenext decades?

Alvin: Computers and everything related to them,obviously, since this will be an exploding, if extremelycompetitive, field for a long time to come.

Biotechnology is another. No one believed us when we talkedabout cloning animals and possibly humans, and we now know thepharmaceutical companies and a lot of biotechnology [firms] areworking furiously in this direction. This will impact ourhealth-care system.

Heidi: The flaw in straight-line projections forhealth-care costs is that they don't account for curesdeveloped biogenetically, which could cause costs to decline. Ithink an area where there will be tremendous growth is home healthcare and elder care in general, as well as services beyond healthneeds, from walking dogs to mowing lawns--services whichindividuals or microcompanies could provide.

Alvin: Education is another field where you can expect avast number of entrepreneurial opportunities for niche ideas on howto encourage better learning. The current factory system is goingto crack, no matter how strong the teachers unions, bureaucraciesand some parents resist, because it is so out of sync with what theemerging economy and society will require.

Another sector where there should be many opportunities is inthe environmental area. We have real problems and must develop waysto cope. And you don't have to be a big corporation toparticipate.

Heidi: I would also point to opportunities for localdelivery. The Internet will demand alternatives to the currentsystem [of product delivery].

Alvin: I was just in Japan at a multibillion-dollarcompany that started out as a small service firm and now has ahundred different small businesses. They're very creative infinding extremely small niches. While I was there, they bought16,000 small trucks for $3,500 each, so you can see that a deliveryservice using something like that would be very feasible.

Entrepreneur:What can the government do to encouragethe emergence of the new economy?

Alvin: The accounting and tax system needs to be changedfrom the current one that favors high capital investments--buyingbig machines that are depreciated over a long period of time--whileproviding no recognition when you buy brains. The current systemdoesn't help small businesses or information-intensivebusinesses. Your computer is obsolete long before it's beendepreciated.

Entrepreneur:How can entrepreneurs help bring aboutthose changes?

Alvin: You need to bring together information-intensivecompanies to confront the problems faced by small business in theemerging economy. The Net is a great tool. You can get data tosupport your position and invite others with similar problems tojoin you.

Entrepreneur:What do you see happening in Japan andChina?

Alvin: Japan is divided between those who want to focuson Asia and those who recognize that their economy is global. Thisadministration made a big mistake by focusing our foreign policyrelations with Japan almost exclusively on trade. We ourselves haveundermined the pro-American Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Wepressured the Japanese to open their borders to Toys "R"Us and chain stores, threatening the livelihood of the 70 percentof the Japanese economy that is small business and a primarysupport for the LDP.

Japan has to completely rethink its political system, which isvery feudalistic--barons who gather money for their followers.

Entrepreneur:What about Mexico?

Heidi: We supported NAFTA, and if it works out, thetheory is that it will be good for both [the United States andMexico].

Alvin: We've argued that our biggest nationalsecurity problem is Mexico. There are tremendous fissures in thatsociety, with near-guerrilla warfare in some areas and a governmentso corrupt, it's threatened with being taken over by druglords. If Mexico explodes, the violence is likely to spill overinto our Southwest, possibly fomented by other countries foranti-American reasons. We need to be less provincial and help builda decent Mexican economy for our own good.

Entrepreneur:What is your outlook for energy?

Heidi: At one time, there were strong incentives providedby the government and utilities for using solar power. Now it seemswe're back to waiting until a crisis occurs because we have somuch coal, oil and gas.

Alvin: We haven't yet seen the benefits of electricalderegulation [or the emergence of] consumers who will push forchoice--what I call a more informed electricate.

Entrepreneur:What are you working on now?

Alvin: We're helping build a multimedia companycalled FutureNet. We decided not to come out with a book in 2000.We want to let the chaos settle down, so we probably won't[write a book] until the following year.

Entrepreneur:You're referring to the Y2Kcrisis?

Alvin: Among other things. As Kevin Kelly [executiveeditor of Wired magazine] said: "It will be a disasterbut not Armageddon." Probably like a couple of HurricaneAndrews.

Heidi: It's a perfect illustration of man'sinability to think ahead. But coming out with a book a year laterthan some might expect doesn't make much difference whenyou're always 10 or 20 years too early.

Scott S. Smith writes about business issues for a variety ofpublications, including Investor's Business Daily.