Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Got a clue? We do, and we're willing to share. Culledfrom hours of research, observation and talks with experts in avariety of industries, the following pages contain our picks forthe 14 hottest trends for 1997 and beyond-not to mention dozens ofproducts, styles and services we predict will spark sizzlingsales.
What trends look particularly hot? Perhaps the biggest forceshaping the future is the approaching millennium. Giving rise to awhole raft of businesses related to personal growth and New Agethinking, the millennium is so important, we've devoted anentire article to the topic (see "2001: A BusinessOdyssey").
And while it doesn't take a genius to peg technology as ahot trend, our look at virtual corporations and home tech will helpyou pinpoint where the greatest opportunities lie in thisfast-changing field.
As for the rest of the trends we've selected-well, if ourpicks are any indication, Americans seem to be going to extremes.On the one hand, they're rocketing down mountains or upskateboard ramps as participants in "extreme" sports;eagerly pursuing the latest fitness regimes, vitamins and herbalsupplements in an endless quest for eternal youth; or stuffingthemselves with gourmet food and designer water. On the other hand,Americans are also seeking to streamline their lives and areturning inward to spiritual pursuits. (Is it any wonder we named"confusion" as one of the hot attitudes for'97?)
Figuring out these seemingly contradictory states of mind-andhow your business can best benefit from them-takes a bit of efforton your part. That effort will, however, be amply rewarded. Sowithout further ado, start reading . . . andget a clue.
Spirituality
What profits it a man to gain the whole world but lose his ownsoul? For many who lived through the anything-goes '60s and'70s, greed-driven '80s and bare-bones early '90s, thisquestion begs a long-overdue answer. Spirituality is experiencing arevival and proving for many infinitely more fascinating, andnecessary, than anything of a physical, emotional or socialnature.
In a recent poll by Utne Reader magazine, "moral andspiritual decay" ranked as the biggest issue facing thenation-ahead of the environment, racial tension, crime, corporatedownsizing and the budget deficit. "Society is reaching theend of its emotional resources," says George Gallup, executivedirector of the Princeton Religion Research Center. "When thathappens, people turn to God. The crisis deepens thesearch."
It also deepens the chasm separating the levels of spirituality.On the one hand, you have Spirituality Lite-witness references toGod in popular music, movies like "The Preacher'sWife," and TV shows like "Touched by an Angel."According to the Princeton Religion Research Center, some 96percent of U.S. adults say they believe in God or a universalspirit. But vague hunches rather than divine inspiration seem toguide many of these believers. "If you ask about a personalGod who judges and answers prayers," Gallup says, "thefigure [drops] closer to eight in 10."
However, more seekers are starting to jump the fence and travela more committed path to enlightenment. Even secular players areseeing the light-much of the Christian music industry is owned byFortune 500 companies such as EMI Records. Truth Clothing, asportswear company making waves in the $3 billionChristian-oriented retail industry, relies on quality to appeal tothe secular as well as the spiritual market. Owners Eric Hannah andScott Brinson have seen crossover success not only in theirmarketing but also in their message.
"In the '80s, there was more hiding of one'sbeliefs," says Hannah. "Today, we don't have toapologize for taking a stand."
"Spirituality is much more mainstream," agreesBrinson. "People are seeing a need for a spiritual life."That includes the next generation. With only 7 percent of kids aged3 to 17 saying they don't believe in God, what will happen asspirituality continues to sweep the nation? God only knows.
Virtual Corporations
Business as usual is anything but with the advent of virtualcorporations. A company more in concept than in reality, thevirtual organization might be considered the ultimate in 1990sdownsizing-an entity minus the employees, minus the corporatebureaucracy, minus the physical trappings of a "real"company.
"I have almost no meetings-I do everything over thephone," boasts Steve Kendall, owner of St. Louis-based virtualcompany SMK Marketing. "Occasionally, I meet with people, butmy philosophy is the less meetings we have, the more work we getdone."
And Kendall gets his work done, no question. The inventor of adevice that opens the cellophane wrappings of compact discs (aswell as audiotapes and videotapes), the 45-year-old entrepreneurbegan selling his product in the Wal-Mart discount chain lastsummer. For fiscal 1996, Kendall projects sales of $3.5million.
How does it work? SMK has no employees. "Everything I need,from the start of production to the point when it's shipped outthe door to Wal-Mart, is done through outsourcing," explainsKendall.
"I think [the trend of virtual corporations] is going tocontinue," says Sharon Marsh Roberts of the IndependentComputer Consultants Association. "The fact that[entrepreneurs] want to respond to a client's needs before somelarger organization gets its bid in is certainly part of therestructuring of American business."
The upshot? Doing business as usual in the leaner, meaner globaleconomy of the 1990s necessitates new thinking and new corporateorganizations. Of this, we feel safe in saying, you may bevirtually certain.
Entertaining At Home
It used to be that people who were all dressed up with nowhereto go were considered losers. Today, they're lauded as thecoolest of the cool. Entertaining at home is the naturalprogression of the cocooning trend of the '90s. With Americansunwilling to venture out into the cold, cruel world, bringingentertainment home was the next logical step.
"In the '80s, people were spending money on uniqueclothing, unique restaurants or unique travel," says PaulFihn, president of the Raintree Collection, a home and decorativeaccessories importer. "Now they're spending it to create asense of uniqueness in the home. They want to replicate asentertaining an environment at home as they experienced when theywent out." By decorating with the intention to create warmth,romance or adventure, people "don't have to leave theirhomes to transport themselves to another place," Fihnsays.
For many, entertainment means retreating from a hectic lifestyleand getting together with friends. They share in the cooking, andeven play cooking games like Stir Crazy, a board game that involvesactually preparing a meal. Even children are getting in on thetrend: Graduating from the ever-popular Playskool minikitchens andplastic food, kids are enrolling in cooking classes at schools,hotels and restaurants. They can peruse the 51 cookbooks aimed atchildren and teens published last year; surf The Kids Cooking Club,a Web site that provides monthly family cooking projects; check outthe culinary classes for anyone aged 10 and older at the DisneyInstitute at Walt Disney World; and join the Cooking TogetherFoundation, formed to support cooking workshops and events forchildren.
Meanwhile, twentysomethings, renowned for putting their own spinon trends, are singlehandedly bringing back the cocktail party. Infact, they've created a subculture known as the New CocktailNation and spurred a music craze called "ultralounge"music-a hodgepodge of old recordings and new beatnik sounds. Thesekids can be seen wearing vintage clothes, eating vegetarianappetizers off mismatched retro dishes, and drinking nonalcoholiccocktails. Equal parts '50s-style cheese and '90s-stylehip, the next generation of home entertainers is nothing if notinspired. Could a Twister revival be far behind?
Water
People everywhere can be overheard discussing their preferencefor domestic or imported, contemplating the etiquette of when andwhen not to partake, and judging others by the size of theirbottles (big bottles make a bold statement; gallon sizes, however,indicate a certain lack of class). Yes, water mania has flooded ourgyms, our offices, our shopping centers, our social events, evenour elementary schools: In Irvine, California, one elementaryschool has requested that first-graders (gulp) bring their ownbottled water to school to cut down on trips to the drinkingfountain.
Sales in the bottled water market grew 8.1 percent last year to$3.4 billion, while bottled water consumption rose 7 percent, toalmost 3 billion gallons, according to research firm BeverageMarketing Corp. In restaurants, bottled water is soaking updouble-digit increases; Beverage Marketing reports it outpacing thepopularity of most soft drinks, beers and liquors.
And California, land of the trend-obsessed, accounts for nearly30 percent of all purified water purchases in the nation and hasseen increased sales of the latest must-have accessory: waterbottle holsters.
While no one questions the liquid assets of brands like Evianand Arrowhead, some of the other 900-plus bottled water companieshave decided to explore uncharted waters. Water Concepts LLC inSouth Barrington, Illinois, is one such company: Its Water Joeoffers caffeinated water supplying a jolt equivalent to a cup ofcoffee. Targeted at 18- to 35-year-olds, Water Joe is "thecoffee and cola alternative," says inventor David Marcheschi."It's water with a kick."
"Water is the premier alternative beverage," says TomPirko, managing director of Bevmark LLC, a New York City-basedbeverage management consulting firm.Water . . . alternative? Perhaps it's arebellion against rebellion, a longing for a life stripped of theextras. Or perhaps it's just for the health of it. Whatever themotivation, the irony is clear: Bombarded with every type ofin-your-face beverage imaginable, more and more people are askingbusinesses, "Got water?"
And those who drink of these waters shall thirst again. SaysPirko, "Water consumption is projected to grow significantlythroughout the decade."
Home Tech
For sale: 4 BR, 2 BA, 4 PCs with 3-D graphics, ISDN, CEBusproducts, 31-inch TV with fully loaded 120 Mhz Pentium PC. No,it's not some Jetsonian flashback or yet another peek at themillennium-we're talking Chino Hills, California, 1997. TheCyberHome, a brainstorm of Computer Life magazine madereality by West Venture Homes, showcases the latest in homeautomation, featuring more than 50 gadgets that do everything fromrun 3-D video games to control your lights automatically.
While some scoff that the average home buyer isn't keen onhigh technology and that high-tech companies haven't yetmastered a way to meet the demands of entertainment-seekingresidents, it's clear the twain shall soon meet.
"[Computer] systems are making more and more sense for homeusers," says Michael Penwarden, executive editor ofComputer Life. "There's a lot of interest in homecomputers, for everything from online banking to home automationand entertainment-the list of ways computers can be used in thehome is pretty long. And as computers become easier to configureand more powerful for the price, they become even morecompelling."
Indeed, a survey by the Consumer Electronics ManufacturersAssociation found personal computers are migrating from the homeoffice to other areas of the home-40 percent of the respondents hada computer in an office or den, 36 percent had computers inbedrooms, 29 percent had computers in family rooms, and 11 percenthad computers in their living rooms. Eighty-eight percent ofteenagers surveyed said they would rather have a computer than avideo game system.
The smart house has arguably piqued the most mainstreaminterest. CEBus, a home automation system that may be introduced asearly as next year, allows you to "call from your office andhave your house cool, the oven on, and your hot tub hot when youcome home from work," Penwarden says.
Research organization The Battelle Memorial Institute predictsthat within 10 years, home techies will have even more to feast on,including a digital, high-definition TV set that will hang on thewall like a large painting and serve as a computer monitor,videoconferencing device and entertainment medium all in one.Meanwhile, aging baby boomers will seek home devices that canmonitor total health and recommend
exercise programs, meals and lifestyle changes as easily as weweigh ourselves today.
Says Stephen Millett, manager of The Battelle TechnologyIntelligence Program, "Much of the technology we've beentalking about for years is practically ready today."
Cigars
Clearly, there are more important things in life than trackingdown a Cuban cigar. You just wouldn't know it by the way somepeople are carrying on.
A phenomenon if ever there was one, cigars are, in the immortalwords of Jim Carrey, smokin'. According to the CigarAssociation of America, sales in the premium cigar industry haverisen dramatically-about 31 percent in 1995 and 51 percent in justthe first half of 1996. "Even those in the industry never sawthe boom coming," says Norman Sharp, the association'spresident.
Consolidated Cigar Holdings Inc., the nation's largest cigarmanufacturer, has a backlog of about 28 million cigars. "Weexpected the market would slow down and that we would, with ourincreased production, catch up on back orders," says RichardL. DiMeola, Consolidated's executive vice president and COO."We were wrong. The market did not slow down; in fact, thisyear, it's expanded even faster."
Prior to the 1962 Cuban embargo, the premium cigar marketaveraged 185 million cigars per year; by the mid-1970s, that numberhad dropped to 50 million. This year, for the first time, themarket is expected to surpass 200 million cigars. "I'venever seen a surge like this," says DiMeola.
Despite this recent surge, the trend started at least a decadeago, with the spawning of the cigar dinner. Then young celebritiesand models started sporting stogies. But the crescendo came in1992, with the advent of Cigar Aficionado magazine, which"repositioned cigars as a fashionable product," saysMarvin R. Shanken (above), the magazine's publisher and editorand, by most accounts, the trend's founding father. Since themagazine's advent, Shanken says there's been "anexplosion in the population of cigar smokers, which has doubled ortripled in the last four years. I'm not sure any other industryhas experienced [growth] like this, with the possible exception ofthe computer industry in Silicon Valley."
"Nobody anticipated the kind of growth that'shappened," says Mark Thomas, a veteran retailer who recentlyopened Blue Havana, a cigar shop in Chicago. "We expected [thestore] to do well, because we knew the category was on fire. But in21 years in retailing, I've never seen sales in a store ramp uplike these. It usually takes two to three years to see the kind ofsales we've seen in 14 weeks."
The difference, apparently, comes down to a shift indemographics. While cigar smokers used to be stereotyped as whatThomas calls "the old, stinky cigar market," today'scigar smokers are clearly young, clearly rich and clearly elitist.The average Cigar Aficionado reader has a household incomeof $148,000, with an average net worth of $1.1 million; 79 percentare college graduates and 65 percent are professional ormanagerial. Thomas identifies the 20- to 35-year-old male as thenew smoker "who has set the cigar world on fire,"inspiring thousands of cigar events per year nationwide, from $25afternoon barbecues to $1,000-a-plate charity dinners.
While the cigar shortage brought on by the industry explosionposes immediate difficulties, opportunities to cater to the cigarsmoker appear to be endless.
Humidors, books, upscale ashtrays, journals, even golf tees tohold your cigar on the links are being snatched up. And, asindustry insiders hope for some slowing down to healthier growthlevels, they're already gearing up for the next windfall."If and when the Cuban embargo is lifted," says DiMeola,"it'll send this market into the stratosphere."
Internet Marketing
Over the past year, we've seen consumers as well asmarketers getting more comfortable with the Internet. More than20,600 stories about the Internet, the World Wide Web, onlineservices and CD-ROMs were published by the media last year. Yetsince the creation of the Internet, the technology's potentialhas always been more exciting than the reality. According toForrester Research Inc., online shopping is expected to reach $6.6billion in 2000-a substantially higher figure than the $518 millionspent in 1996. More than 65 percent of people who purchasedproducts or services through new media planned to shop through theInternet or other new media again within the next 12 months, asurvey conducted in 1995 by consulting firm A.T. Kearney concluded.Does this mean the potential of Internet marketing will finallyintersect with the expectations within the next few years?
Marketers are betting on it. Hundreds of big-name companies haveset up Web sites, and a report by Forrester shows that evencompanies without household names have become huge presences on theInternet.
"People marketing on the Internet are getting more savvyabout collecting information," says Joe Hair, director of theInstitute for Entrepreneurial Education and Family Business Studiesat Louisiana State University (LSU) in Baton Rouge. "We arerapidly developing software that will give us more information onthe value of a hit [a visit to a site] so you can judge who'scoming [to the site], how long they stay, and whether theyultimately purchase." To business owners of the future,marketing on the Internet will be second nature, thanks to programssuch as one being tested by LSU, in conjunction with publishingconglomerate International
Thompson, in which students learn Internet marketing, complete withthe e-mail addresses of marketing scholars worldwide.
Clearly, those still put off by Internet marketing may findtheir businesses suffering as a result. Entrepreneurs "have toget on the Net and experiment with it," says Harris Gordon, avice president at A.T. Kearney, "because the model ofmarketing itself is going to start changing."
That change will be instigated not by any one company, no matterhow big or small, but by consumers. "Instead of sitting bypassively, consumers are going to make their needs known in themarketplace and expect marketers to respond to them," saysGordon. "Or they'll [peruse] a large spectrum of productsor services, select five or six, then ask for more information orfor a bid. Though this is the business-to-business model formarketing today, exactly the same thing is going to happen withconsumers in the future."
Gordon predicts that by the early 2000s, 20 percent to 25percent of direct marketing revenues will result from the Internetand other communications devices. "The question is not whether[this trend] will grow," he says. "The question is howfast."
STILL HOT
Candles
The candle craze is burning at both ends, as consumers clamorfor everything from minuscule votives to substantial pillars, fromfloating rose candles to wild abstract designs. Annual retail salesof decorative candles are pushing past the $1 billion mark, whilethose wafting aromas you detect are probably scented candles, whichcontinue to be industry growth leaders.
Converts can't help but wax poetic about the true benefit ofcandles. "People are seeking tranquility," says J.C.Edmond of the National Candle Association. "Candles providethat."
Home Improvement
Apparently, homeowners still aren't satisfied in their questto build the perfect dream house: According to the American ExpressRetail Index, a whopping 40 percent of U.S. consumers made homeimprovements this year.
The kitchen-home of professional steel stoves and othersophisticated appliances-is where many of the improvements arehappening, says John Quaregna of the National Association of theRemodeling Industry. The bathroom is another hot spot: Stressed-outconsumers are seeking refuge in luxurious amenities such asJacuzzis and more.
Turtles
Cautiously, the turtle is peeking out of its shell and into thespotlight. Games, puzzles and books are crawling with thecreatures, who are creeping into household decorations, too.
"The preoccupation with turtles has a lot to do with agrowing interest in nature," says Carrie Chesloff of Giftand Stationery Business magazine.
But while the animals have a reputation for dawdling, sales ofturtle-related products are anything but sleepy. With consumersreadily shelling out the green, the turtle trend appears to bemoving swimmingly.
Tiki
Have the tiki torches been passed to a new generation? Asunlikely as it sounds, tiki merchandise seems to be riding a waveof popularity. Carved tiki gods, bamboo and rattan furniture, shelllamps, drinking glasses adorned with hulagirls . . . it's enough to trigger"Hawaii Five-O" flashbacks.
"It blows my mind how popular it is," says BrianVarela, co-owner of Space Invaders, a Long Beach, California,vintage store. "If we [stock] tiki clothing, tiki pictures-allthat stuff goes."
As for whether Middle America will embrace the tiki trend-well,that remains to be seen. Suffice it to say that if they do,we're going to need more than a few mai tais to get us over theshock.
Scary Toys And Books
If you thought the horror was over, think again. Led by theGoosebumps book series, ghosts, monsters and other thingsthat go bump in the night are attracting kids and sales.
The latest trend in terror: scary products that also make kidslaugh. Book series Deadtime Stories (Troll Communications)and SpineTinglers (Avon Books) and TV programs "BoneChillers" (a live-action show for teens) as well as"Secrets of the Cryptkeeper's Haunted House" are allgetting in on the action.
Meanwhile, older programs, including Nickelodeon's "AreYou Afraid of the Dark?" and "AAAHH!!! RealMonsters," continue to scare up healthy audiences among boysand ghouls-er, girls. And with many of the books and showsaccompanied by lines of CD-ROM games, audiobooks, toys, apparel,videos, party goods and more, the profit potential is enough tomake you scream.
Ballroom Dancing
Rumba, anyone? If you predicted the ballroom blitz brought on by1994's hit movie "Strictly Ballroom" would fadefaster than a pair of aching feet in high-heeled pumps, you wereway off the mark. Indeed, the U.S. Amateur Ballroom DancersAssociation more than doubled its membership during the past fouryears and expects to reach 50,000 members by the year 2000. Thatfigure might even be exceeded if Hollywood waltzes ahead with plansfor other big-screen turns in ballroom dancing.
Inline Skating
Inline skating is still on a roll. Thanks in part to theformation of inline skating leagues, the fastest-growing sport inthe country over the past six years is more popular now than whenit exploded onto the fitness scene in the '80s. In 1994, therewere 18.8 million inline skaters in the United States; one yearlater, there were 22.5 million enthusiasts, an increase of 20percent. "[Inline skating] isn't just for recreationalskaters anymore," says Maureen O'Neill at Minnetonka,Minnesota-based Rollerblade Inc. "And it caters to children,men and women equally. It's a sport for everybody."
Gardening
We're not promising you a rose garden-just a $22.2 billionindustry comprised of 72 million households. Gardening, you see, isno longer a passive pastime; it's a competitive sport."People take great pleasure in having the first ripe tomato onthe block," says Bruce Butterfield, research director of theNational Gardening Association.
Why the obsession? It's no secret. "Whether foraesthetic reasons, or to grow fresh vegetables and herbs, or tohave a backyard oasis," says Butterfield, "a garden is aretreat from a crazy world."
